A new year is here so I’ll take another swing at how technology will change in the year 2014. This will be my sixth year doing a predictions post. If you haven’t read them before you should check out my 2013 post and then take a look at some of the older predictions I’ve made. I especially like my prediction from 2009 that Google would make a social network and twitter would be the next big social network. Anyway, here are some crazy, and not so crazy, predictions for 2014.

Computers and Mobile

1. Converging devices will finally become main stream. I know there have been devices in the past that attempted to solve the “one device to rule them all” problem. (e.g. Motorola Atrix, Asus Padfone) They have never taken off for three reasons, 1) they weren’t inter-operable, 2) they were slow, 3) they were expensive. I also know that many people already have “one device” because they have a keyboard dock on their iPad. In reality though, they just bought the cheapest Apple laptop they could. I think there will be a big name company (it won’t be Apple, see below) to offer their phones/tablets to be a true laptop/desktop replacement via a docking station that changes the user interface depending on what the device is plugged into. People have been trying to accomplish some of this functionality for a while with things like Ubuntu for Android, but the solution needs to come by default with the device for it to really take off.

2. Speaking of converged devices, Apple will have a larger iPad (12″) that can be used like a desktop and is designed for professionals. It will be more powerful than the existing iPad and will be Apple’s attempt at a “cheap” laptop. It won’t be as successful as the existing iPad though because for the general consumer they already have this functionality in their existing iPad/keyboard combo. It also won’t change the user interface when docked and just use super high resolution apps.

3. The year of the wearable computer! 2013 saw a lot of buzz in the wearable computer arena with the Pebble, Fitbit, Jawbone up, Samsung gear, etc. This year it will really take off because Google (via Motorola) and Apple will get behind the movement with wearables. I think most of the main stream adoption won’t happen until fall though because Google won’t announce anything until summer and Apple will wait for Fall. CES will be littered with crappy wearables coming out in early summer to beat the big name products.

4. Blackberry will die. I have predicted this with friends but realized I never put it on one of these predictions. Blackberry will transition to a completely software company and will fail to generate revenue. They will be gone by Q2 of 2015.

5. HP and Dell will get back into the mobile business. They probably realize by now they have to sell mobile devices if they want to keep revenue up. My guess is HP will make Android devices (they’ll suck) and Dell will make Windows Phone devices (they’ll suck even more). Samsung will spin off their own version of Android and LG will release a tablet with webOS.

Software and Web

1. Windows has been in a downward spiral since Windows 8 was announced (and even before Windows Phone 7 Series Phone). This year Windows will lose significant market share to OS X, Chrome OS, iOS, and Android. Microsoft has been scrambling to make Windows 8 better for consumers by adding features they removed. Although I don’t think consumers care about spying and the NSA, I do think that businesses care and this year businesses will actually start adopting the alternate operating systems for their employees. I think in many cases Windows will still be the work horse of the enterprise, via VDI, but Microsoft will be scrambling to find new markets in hardware, software subscriptions, and giving away stuff for free (and charging for premium features). They will also shift to a consumer company.

2. Web standardization is going to get a boost in 2014 for three reasons. 1) Security can be better when there is a good standard 2) user experience is better when everyone is on a level playing field 3) the least common denominator has been, and will continue to be, mobile. If companies want to reach the widest audience, they will have to design for slow devices, with small screens, and HTML browsers.

3. There will be a new great website in 2014. This one is a little bit obvious but I think the thing that is going to be neat is the fact that it will do something we haven’t dreamed of yet. In years past there have been some sites that changed how people interact with the internet IFTTT/Pinterest (2010), imgur (2009), and reddit (2005) are all examples of this and I think the pace of innovation is getting faster. This year a new site, one that was probably started in 2013, will become a huge success and will eventually get bought by Google or Facebook. Oh and one of the previously mentioned sites will be purchase by a big name company.

4. NSA backlash will cause big US companies to lose market share in other countries. Now that most of the spying secrets are out, many foreign companies will be looking for alternatives to the software they have been relying on for so long. Linux and open source software will be the big winner in most cases and Microsoft will be hurt the most. More and more countries will put efforts forth to build their own operating systems by customizing distributions of Linux to suit their needs.

Games

1. Virtual reality will be awesome, and niche. I wish I could say it would take off and I’m very excited for the Oculus Rift, but I don’t see many people outside of hardcore, single player gamers adopting it. Real adoption will happen in 2015-2016 when it’s wireless, cheaper, and works with consoles. I look forward to the future of virtual reality not only for games though, I also think it’s a great way to watch a movie assuming the headphones will support surround sound.

2. I predicted in 2012 that Nintendo would struggle and I still think that’ll be the case. This year I also think that Sony will have a hard time shifting from a hardware provider to a software and services company. In order to make the PS4 great and lasting they need to provide solid services and I don’t think they have the development abilities to do so.

3. Apple will get into games in a big way with a new Apple TV, first party gaming hardware, and better game center integration. Apples efforts will make everything Google has done look completely worthless, if it hasn’t already, and Google will scramble to create a better gaming platform. In reality though, Google doesn’t care and will just leave the gaming to third parties which will all suck.

Other

1. Self driving cars will hit a wall. While this is mostly figuratively speaking, although I do predict there will be the first accident involving a self driving car while the car is driving this year, I think the real “wall” autonomous vehicles will hit is legislation. Even though some states have already approved the use of the cars, there is still a long way to go before someone can buy one. There are other hurdles like re-writing laws, adapting insurance, and building better/smarter streets. Google will probably try to build their own cars but I think China will make a big move to make their own self driving cars probably by ripping off other companies technology.

2. I think 2014 will make it harder for non-skilled workers to find a job. There will probably be two or three big companies making 99% automated factories. The factories will need maintenance workers for the machines but won’t need the hundreds of assembly workers they once needed. Think how much you already interact with non-humans day to day. When was the last time you interacted with a person to fill up your gas tank? How many times have you used self checkout at the store? When was the last time you talked to a person when calling a support number? All of these things are unskilled work that have now been replaced with machines. 2014 will expand that to many new areas and make it hard for people who don’t have experience, to get experience.

3. Payment reform will begin but won’t be mainstream yet. It seems like everyone I talk to is waiting for mobile payments. It won’t happen with NFC, sorry Android fans, and geofencing is too inaccurate. Apple won’t get into the mobile payment business until 2015 (with iBeacon 2) so this year will be another year of mixed products like Google Wallet, Coin, Bitcoin, and Square. No one will win and consumers who adopt one will lose because the standard will eventually be Apple’s solution. They will release it in 2015 and allow compatible devices (a.k.a. Android) to use it. I don’t want it to be true, but that’s what I think will happen.

That’s all my predictions for 2014, do you have any you’d like to make? Leave a note in the comments if you think I’m right or wrong.

Thanks to David Hepworth for the banner picture.

Computers:
1. Netbooks/sub-12″ laptops will be even bigger than before because they will finally be useful. Atom/ULV processors, Ion/Tegra graphics, and touch enabled devices will make having a 17″ laptop a bad thing. Oh and used/refurbished laptops might play a big role in killing desktops once and for all.
2. Windows Home server will have a big update (based on server 2008 r2) and will include Windows Media Center backend and Zune software so you can plug your tuners directly into your WHS. This will also allow for great integration in Windows Mobile 7 and begin a new wave of extenders. I don’t think it will be out till Q3/Q4 though so extenders won’t make a push until 2011.
3. Someone will finally offer a true alternative to cable TV. It will probably come from Apple/Netflix/Boxee/Hulu/Microsoft and it will still be an expensive monthly charge but it will be possible to disconnect your cable/satellite. I am thinking Microsoft will begin a Zune Pass for TV which will integrate into Windows Media Center when WHS 2 and WM7 come out.
4. Apple will begin talks of their new OS, Microsoft will stay quiet about what they are working (and ride the good wave of Windows 7) on as long as possible, and Linux will be in a transitional phase while KDE and Gnome both get big updates.

Video Games:
1. Nintendo won’t come out with anything new. They are going to milk the Wii and DS as long as they can and plan for the Wii HD announcement in 2011. Microsoft will do the same with the Xbox 360 but they will probably hint that they are making something new before the end of the year.
2. Sony will hopefully focus on finishing their projects (home, media codecs, 3D, etc.) and open up the PS3 to 3rd party programs in 2010. Things like Netflix and Pandora streaming I don’t think are too far fetched and I really hope to see a decent browser come to the console along with Vudu streaming.
3. A new mobile console will come out. Probably in the form of a phone, but I expect a lot from Microsoft with Xbox Live on Windows Mobile 7.

Cell Phones:
1. Verizon will begin its rollout of LTE and Apple will announce a device for Verizon. I have always thought Apple would not make a CDMA device until Verizon starts rolling out LTE and that will happen in 2010. This also means that the device will work on Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile in the US and many GSM carriers around the world once GSM networks start updates. With a device on Verizon Apple will have a huge hold on the mobile market. It won’t go unanswered though.
2. Android will become number 3 in the mobile world. That is no small feat however. Android is currently the bottom in market share, by a lot. They will win in 4 ways, 1. Cheap devices 2. Multiple options 3. Any Carrier 4. The decline of RIM and Windows Mobile. Windows mobile has already been stagnant for the past 5 months and RIM is losing it’s customers. I don’t think RIM is smart enough to announce something big so they will die off but will still hold a good portion of the market share through most of 2010. Oh, and an official Google phone and a crap load of more updates to the OS won’t hurt either.
3. webOS will gain market share thanks to Verizon but will still fail to make the impact that the new Apple device will. Palm’s only benefit will be that they will be on Verizon first because they will support CDMA. I really hope they come out with a new phone, but if anything I think they will only announce a new phone in Q3 but not release anything new.
4. Windows Mobile 7 will have features built in that will make any iPhone user gelous. I am not just talking about cool games, I am talking about ZuneHD player integration, amazing hardware, and media streaming galore. I think they will integrate with the new Windows Home Server/Media Center and will really make seamless media playback better than ever. Not only that but WM7 will be heavily integrated into social networks allowing you to be always connected to your facebook, twitter, email, etc. even more seamless than Android or webOS.
5. Apple Tablet will be huge at first, and then go the way of the Apple TV. Yes the device will be really cool, yes fanboys/blogs/tech sites will long for the chance to gaze upon the amazing apple logo on the back, and yes it will do really cool things with media playback and music streaming. But if even 1/2 of the rumors are true the device is destined to fail. A ~$800, 10″ tablet you carry around to watch videos, surf the web, listen to music, and play games on really just sounds lame unless I was at home sitting on my couch. And in that case I will just use my laptop or get a netbook preferably with Google Chrome for less than 1/2 the price. I feel weird talking about it when it is really only about a month from being announced. But in all honesty, I don’t see how this would be any better than a device you can actually carry in your pocket like say, a Google Phone. Oh and the tablet will have hardware issues in the first generation.

Other:
1. 3D in TV’s will have a big push. There are finally standards to allow for it and sales will be slow at first because there won’t be much content and prices will be ridiculous. Interest will rise when cable providers announce 3D cable TV offerings for launch in 2011.
2. Retail stores will begin to push online sales and start to lose services because consumers are getting smarter, or at least more resourceful. With Amazon having as big of a year as they did, stores like Best Buy, Barns n Noble, and Sears just can’t rely on people coming into their stores as much.
3. The Automotive industry will finally push for a standard in electric/hybrid cars. With so many companies going out of business, automotive makers can’t stay fragmented for long. They will have to agree upon something or they will lose to a up and coming company like Tesla.

Let me know what you think in the comments. Mostly I feel 2010 will be a year of recovery and not innovation. Although necessity is the mother of invention so maybe I am wrong.