A new year is here so I’ll take another swing at how technology will change in the year 2014. This will be my sixth year doing a predictions post. If you haven’t read them before you should check out my 2013 post and then take a look at some of the older predictions I’ve made. I especially like my prediction from 2009 that Google would make a social network and twitter would be the next big social network. Anyway, here are some crazy, and not so crazy, predictions for 2014.

Computers and Mobile

1. Converging devices will finally become main stream. I know there have been devices in the past that attempted to solve the “one device to rule them all” problem. (e.g. Motorola Atrix, Asus Padfone) They have never taken off for three reasons, 1) they weren’t inter-operable, 2) they were slow, 3) they were expensive. I also know that many people already have “one device” because they have a keyboard dock on their iPad. In reality though, they just bought the cheapest Apple laptop they could. I think there will be a big name company (it won’t be Apple, see below) to offer their phones/tablets to be a true laptop/desktop replacement via a docking station that changes the user interface depending on what the device is plugged into. People have been trying to accomplish some of this functionality for a while with things like Ubuntu for Android, but the solution needs to come by default with the device for it to really take off.

2. Speaking of converged devices, Apple will have a larger iPad (12″) that can be used like a desktop and is designed for professionals. It will be more powerful than the existing iPad and will be Apple’s attempt at a “cheap” laptop. It won’t be as successful as the existing iPad though because for the general consumer they already have this functionality in their existing iPad/keyboard combo. It also won’t change the user interface when docked and just use super high resolution apps.

3. The year of the wearable computer! 2013 saw a lot of buzz in the wearable computer arena with the Pebble, Fitbit, Jawbone up, Samsung gear, etc. This year it will really take off because Google (via Motorola) and Apple will get behind the movement with wearables. I think most of the main stream adoption won’t happen until fall though because Google won’t announce anything until summer and Apple will wait for Fall. CES will be littered with crappy wearables coming out in early summer to beat the big name products.

4. Blackberry will die. I have predicted this with friends but realized I never put it on one of these predictions. Blackberry will transition to a completely software company and will fail to generate revenue. They will be gone by Q2 of 2015.

5. HP and Dell will get back into the mobile business. They probably realize by now they have to sell mobile devices if they want to keep revenue up. My guess is HP will make Android devices (they’ll suck) and Dell will make Windows Phone devices (they’ll suck even more). Samsung will spin off their own version of Android and LG will release a tablet with webOS.

Software and Web

1. Windows has been in a downward spiral since Windows 8 was announced (and even before Windows Phone 7 Series Phone). This year Windows will lose significant market share to OS X, Chrome OS, iOS, and Android. Microsoft has been scrambling to make Windows 8 better for consumers by adding features they removed. Although I don’t think consumers care about spying and the NSA, I do think that businesses care and this year businesses will actually start adopting the alternate operating systems for their employees. I think in many cases Windows will still be the work horse of the enterprise, via VDI, but Microsoft will be scrambling to find new markets in hardware, software subscriptions, and giving away stuff for free (and charging for premium features). They will also shift to a consumer company.

2. Web standardization is going to get a boost in 2014 for three reasons. 1) Security can be better when there is a good standard 2) user experience is better when everyone is on a level playing field 3) the least common denominator has been, and will continue to be, mobile. If companies want to reach the widest audience, they will have to design for slow devices, with small screens, and HTML browsers.

3. There will be a new great website in 2014. This one is a little bit obvious but I think the thing that is going to be neat is the fact that it will do something we haven’t dreamed of yet. In years past there have been some sites that changed how people interact with the internet IFTTT/Pinterest (2010), imgur (2009), and reddit (2005) are all examples of this and I think the pace of innovation is getting faster. This year a new site, one that was probably started in 2013, will become a huge success and will eventually get bought by Google or Facebook. Oh and one of the previously mentioned sites will be purchase by a big name company.

4. NSA backlash will cause big US companies to lose market share in other countries. Now that most of the spying secrets are out, many foreign companies will be looking for alternatives to the software they have been relying on for so long. Linux and open source software will be the big winner in most cases and Microsoft will be hurt the most. More and more countries will put efforts forth to build their own operating systems by customizing distributions of Linux to suit their needs.

Games

1. Virtual reality will be awesome, and niche. I wish I could say it would take off and I’m very excited for the Oculus Rift, but I don’t see many people outside of hardcore, single player gamers adopting it. Real adoption will happen in 2015-2016 when it’s wireless, cheaper, and works with consoles. I look forward to the future of virtual reality not only for games though, I also think it’s a great way to watch a movie assuming the headphones will support surround sound.

2. I predicted in 2012 that Nintendo would struggle and I still think that’ll be the case. This year I also think that Sony will have a hard time shifting from a hardware provider to a software and services company. In order to make the PS4 great and lasting they need to provide solid services and I don’t think they have the development abilities to do so.

3. Apple will get into games in a big way with a new Apple TV, first party gaming hardware, and better game center integration. Apples efforts will make everything Google has done look completely worthless, if it hasn’t already, and Google will scramble to create a better gaming platform. In reality though, Google doesn’t care and will just leave the gaming to third parties which will all suck.

Other

1. Self driving cars will hit a wall. While this is mostly figuratively speaking, although I do predict there will be the first accident involving a self driving car while the car is driving this year, I think the real “wall” autonomous vehicles will hit is legislation. Even though some states have already approved the use of the cars, there is still a long way to go before someone can buy one. There are other hurdles like re-writing laws, adapting insurance, and building better/smarter streets. Google will probably try to build their own cars but I think China will make a big move to make their own self driving cars probably by ripping off other companies technology.

2. I think 2014 will make it harder for non-skilled workers to find a job. There will probably be two or three big companies making 99% automated factories. The factories will need maintenance workers for the machines but won’t need the hundreds of assembly workers they once needed. Think how much you already interact with non-humans day to day. When was the last time you interacted with a person to fill up your gas tank? How many times have you used self checkout at the store? When was the last time you talked to a person when calling a support number? All of these things are unskilled work that have now been replaced with machines. 2014 will expand that to many new areas and make it hard for people who don’t have experience, to get experience.

3. Payment reform will begin but won’t be mainstream yet. It seems like everyone I talk to is waiting for mobile payments. It won’t happen with NFC, sorry Android fans, and geofencing is too inaccurate. Apple won’t get into the mobile payment business until 2015 (with iBeacon 2) so this year will be another year of mixed products like Google Wallet, Coin, Bitcoin, and Square. No one will win and consumers who adopt one will lose because the standard will eventually be Apple’s solution. They will release it in 2015 and allow compatible devices (a.k.a. Android) to use it. I don’t want it to be true, but that’s what I think will happen.

That’s all my predictions for 2014, do you have any you’d like to make? Leave a note in the comments if you think I’m right or wrong.

Thanks to David Hepworth for the banner picture.

It Sucks Because

• You have no easy way to manage what account links will open with (mailto, calendar, docs)
• You can’t (easily) have to inboxes open at the same time from different accounts
• All of your bookmarks, history, open tabs, plugins sync no matter what account you’re using
• Every account is subject to the same browser plugins permissions
• You are limited to a single private browsing window
• This method doesn’t work for all Google services

How to Make it Better

Chrome and Firefox have the ability to set up multiple user profiles. In Google Chrome go to the settings and click add a new user.

Once you do you’ll have new icon in the top left corner (at least in Chrome) with the icon for the new user. Click this drop down to select your new users and you’ll be prompted to sign into your Google account to start syncing your data. Each profile will be able to sync bookmarks, open tabs, search engines, passwords, and extensions individually so you don’t have to worry about opening your browser at home and seeing all your research tabs from work.
Using multiple profiles allows you to have multiple windows open each with their own Google profile signed in. Any mailto, calendar, or docs links will open in the browser window (and Google profile) of the last active window.
You now have the ability to also open multiple private browsing windows (one for each profile) for testing websites without cache, and logging in with additional credentials. Don’t want to test a new browser extension with your Google Apps domain admin user? Test it, and its security, on your personal account first without worrying about it stealing confidential information.

Why It’s Still Not Perfect

• No way to set a shortcut to control which profile opens initially (opens last used profile)
• No ability to selectively sync content between profiles*
• Multiple users are not supported on mobile browsers
• Switching users/windows may get confusing if you have a lot open

I have been using this method of managing my browsing habits and Google accounts for about a year now and I would never go back to the old multi sign on method. Got any tips for Google account management and browser syncing? Please leave them in the comments.

*I am able to sync selective content by using 3rd party services for my passwords and bookmarks. I use LastPass and Diigo under a single account and just install the extensions in each browser profile.

Computers and Mobile

1. First of all, I really really hope that the Apple mania that has been going on for the past few years will finally die off. I don’t think it will though only because Microsoft seems to have shot themselves in the foot with Windows 8 being nothing that consumers were asking for.

2. Speaking of Windows 8. This year Windows RT will finally become a viable tablet solution. It will only happen though because Microsoft will throw billions of dollars at developers to write software, manufacturers to make hardware, and advertising. There will be no real compelling reason to buy Windows RT over another tablet because Microsoft still won’t figure out how to make a compelling ecosystem. They also will come out with a new version of the tablet OS that will run on smaller screen devices which will allow hardware to drop to the sub $500 range. Of course, the smaller tablets won’t do anything that you really want because Microsoft will artificially limit their capabilities so you’ll buy a more expensive tablet.

3. Smartphone hardware will start to level out this year and the spec race will turn into an ecosystem/software capabilities race. 3rd party manufacturers (HTC especially) will realize their limitations of not being a 1st party manufacturer. Apple, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft will all have their own hardware that can and will do things 3rd parties fail at. Because 3rd parties won’t have the benefit of making money from a robust ecosystem, they will either die or be absorbed into the main players.

4. Google will continue merging Android and Chrome OS but their focus this year will be on making hardware. Making and selling their own phone, tablet, media streamer, Google TV, DVR, router, Android at home, Google glass, and laptop will be too enticing for them. It will also help them sell more ads and know what your are doing 24/7.

5. Google glass is going to be a huge nerd success while the general public will just think WTF. But then, another company (not Apple or Microsoft) will come out with a less obtrusive wearable computer (probably a watch or clothing) and everyone will think it’s amazing! Apple’s and Microsoft’s wearable computers won’t come out till 2014-2015.

Software and Web

1. Startups will fail left and right. It will become a crashing reality for everyone trying to make it as a startup. There will be very few that are purchased by big name companies and the rest will fail. This will cause a slow down in web innovation as fewer people are willing to take a risk and lose everything.

2. Ecosystems will become more segregated and users will have to choose their alliance. Companies are finally realizing what Apple knew years ago. Lock-in not only generates sustainable money, but it also makes it hard for users to leave. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google will continue to try to lock users into an ecosystem that is not only complete (music, movies, TV, OS) but also doesn’t work well with others.

3. Facebook will also expand their ecosystem but their efforts to make money through Facebook specific promotions (gifts, perks, etc.) will ultimately drive users away from the service. Not that they will care if a million users leave the service, but there will be some out cry for people to stop using it.

4. A new company will offer a non-tablet data only (LTE) mobile device with no voice calling. No carrier will allow it on their network because they won’t make money off of it and the new company will go under. Then in 2014 Apple will have an LTE iPod touch and everyone will say “Why didn’t anyone do this before?”

Video Games

1. Indie consoles everywhere! The Kickstarter fad is going to generate a lot of small consoles that will plug into your TV that will use your phone as a controller (via Bluetooth) and they will all kinda suck. They will all run Android or Linux and none of them will have compatible app stores. They will be super cheap (~$100) but won’t catch on because there will be so many terrible knock-offs that no single console can be the winner.

2. Steambox will be the best new console! Although Steam Valve isn’t really new to the video game world, their console will be a huge hit. It will be announced at E3 and be available by Christmas. It also will cost less than a PS4 and probably the same as a Xbox 720. It will run Linux customized Ubuntu, have a limited number of games available, and have a vibrant hacking community. Ultimately the console will be better for Linux than it will be for Valve.

3. PS4 and Xbox 720 will both come out this year. Am I the only one who is over big name consoles? Until the consoles have portability or virtual reality I think I’ll stick to casual gaming on my phone and computer.

Other

1. It’s no secret that movie theaters are struggling to keep attendance. This year I suspect they will start to get creative and try to offer things that people can’t get at home. Two years ago it was 3D, this past year it was IMAX and 48 fps, in the 1920s-1930s it was widescreen video. Next year I suspect they will have some new gimmick that won’t enhance the viewing experience. Arguably not everything movie theaters come up with is a gimmick, but I have a feeling whatever they come up with next will be.

2. Likewise there will be more of a push to bring theater release movies to people’s homes. They will be outlandishly expensive but at least it will be something possible. In the next 5-10 years this will cause most movie theaters to go the way of the video arcade.

3. Self-driving cars will be a consumer reality. For the states that have approved laws, car manufacturers (not just Google) will begin testing self-driving cars. The won’t be available to the public until 2014 but if you live in one of the few states that allow it you may see them on the road.

4. The maker revolution will continue to grow. People making their own stuff and figuring out how things work has been driving a lot of innovation and next year it will only grow stronger as 3D printers become more accessible and information sharing grows. I suspect there will be a ~$250 3D printer that comes out and any company that encourages hardware modifications will be a consumer success even if most people don’t make any modifications at all.

5. Someone will succeed where Boxee failed this year with an unlimited DVR. I have a feeling it will be Amazon. They will offer a set top box that is capable of watching live TV and they also will make “recordings” available through prime instant video for prime subscribers. They will be competing mostly with Hulu but they will make the STB so cheap that it will actually catch on.

The Externals

The Google Mini isn’t super special outside from the fact that it’s a 1U server with a big blue sticker on top and the rest of the outside painted blue. There are also a lot of security bits that prevent normal users from opening them up.

The sticker prevents you from opening the lid so we’ll need to peal that back if we want to see what’s inside.

Here’s one of the security screws

And here’s the master key we’ll use to get inside.

The Internals

Once we get past that we can open up the lid by sliding it back and revealing the insides.

Let’s start by looking at the main components. The CPU heatsink is under the plastic shroud with just a single fan cooling off the entire server. The heatsink below the CPU is for the north bridge which handles communication from the CPU to the RAM. The black heatsink on the top right is for the PCIe controller.

The ports on the server are pretty standard for any desktop/server. An added benefit being this comes with dual network interface cards (NIC) which can allow for more advanced system management.

The server comes with 2GB of DDR2 RAM which you can easily see here.

The server has 1 PCIe 16x slot and 5 PCI slots. Not that you could use them in a 1U case though.

It also has 4 SATA controllers, 1 IDE hard drive controller, and a floppy controller. There is also an IPMI slot which is used for out of band management (OOBM). The slot is missing the OOB network card. You can also see two headers for optional case-mounted USB and some jumpers labelled JWD which stand for Jumper Watch Dog. These jumpers allow the machine to automatically reboot if a software hang is detected.

You can also see the Intel ICH6R south bridge for communication handling to the accessories. The chip near the top right of the picture contains the BIOS and the two pads on the bottom right of the south bridge allow for clearing the CMOS settings when jumped.

On the other side of the case are some more jumpers. These are labeled JPWAKE1 and JPUSB1. Both of these pins allow the server to be woken either by USB or PS2 keyboard/mouse input.

Along the rear of the case are also the two network controllers for the Broadcom network cards. This picture also shows us that the motherboard is manufactured by Supero and the model is a P8SCT. A quick Google search turned up the user manual which proved to be very helpful when identifying some of the chips and jumpers.

The power supply is standard but to be thorough I might as well take a picture of that too.

When taking out the hard drive there are 4 screws on the bottom of the case that hold the damper screws to the hard drive. Luckily they’re labeled so it makes finding them easy.

Once you take out the screws the hard drive slides out. There is also a little air dam that keeps air flowing over the hard drive on it’s way to cool the CPU.

Just to be overly thorough of the motherboard, here’s a component layout from the user manual.

I hope you enjoyed the teardown. Just for comparison, AnandTech their own teardown in 2005. The internals on that Google Mini looked quite a bit different.

Computers and Mobile

1. The market will finally start to have tablet fatigue and the clear winners will be Apple’s iPad, Amazon’s Kindle, and Microsoft tablets. Android will still do well but no single company (besides Amazon) will be able to market and push a tablet like the tech giants. And cheap tablets will, in the end, have more market share than expensive ones. Which is also why Apple will probably come out with a cheaper tablet ($350-$400) to compete.
2. Ultrabooks are going to be everywhere this year. They will try to compete with tablets and the MacBook Air but will only gain traction when they drop to $500 or less. A lot of users won’t even care though because they can do most of their work on a $250 tablet.
3. Google will merge Android and Chrome OS in an attempt to compete with what Microsoft comes out with in Windows 8. It will work similarly to how Motorola’s splashtop works now, but accessories will be more universal and the lapdock OS will work better.
4. Apple’s iPhone 5 will set new records for sales, Android will remain in the lead (because of the volume of devices), Windows Phone 7 will eat away at iPhone market because of Windows users who are fed up with Apple’s ecosystem, and RIM/webOS/etc. will all be forgotten by the main stream.
5. Google will also come out with a dumb phone version of Android for developing countries, and non-smartphones. These phones will typically not have touch screens but will be able to run some Android apps.

Software and Web

1. Windows 8 will have versatile tablets and will serve multiple purposes as tablets/notebooks/desktops. Businesses will buy them by the boatload in an attempt to allow users to stay mobile and save some money. The tablets won’t be as functional as notebooks but will be the cool thing for at least another year. In order to use all of Windows 8′s cloud featuers you will have to start using Microsoft’s server backend which will sway even more users towards Apple computers. Consumers won’t really care about this functionality and there will be a small market for accessories and docks because the interfaces will not be universal like they will be for Android/Chrome OS.
2. Desktop applications will take a hit in sales as more users realize they can do what they need with web apps. Google Docs and Office Live will start to gain steam with the general public, but I think another app entirely will become the winner. Probably something that integrates with Facebook. This will also help propel Google even further with Chrome OS.
3. Streaming music will hit main stream and people will finally stop buying CDs. Spotify will probably be the winner because of it’s Facebook integration. We will also see other companies start their own music streaming services (Verizon, Comcast, etc.) and they will all be terrible.
4. Streaming video will still struggle throughout the year because content providers will not lower the prices for digital downloads and streaming. Netflix will have some major competition this year and will continue to lose market as other competition gets more content, and has cheaper prices.
5. Social network exhaustion will set in for many as options will continue to expand. By the end of 2012 Facebook will still be the clear winner in social but many users will just be worn out on trying to keep up with all of their online friends.
6. Voice control is going to have a huge push because of devices that don’t have keyboards. Siri will lead the way thanks to hacks, but Microsoft and Google will both have answers in 2012. Neither will be as consistant on devices because they cannot control the entire ecosystem. Google and Microsoft will try to be more open with their voice control and will start to persuade users off of Siri, but Apple will allow 3rd party plugins and accessories which will keep a lot of the voice control usefulness on their side.

Video Games

1. Mobile gaming will die. The Vita and DS are doomed due to the fact that the consoles and games cost so much. People will keep using their phones, music players, and tablets as casual gaming consoles and won’t even bother to buy the more expensive consoles. Micro payments will be huge in 2012.
2. Nintendo will struggle to find a new market. Their Wii U will be mostly unsuccessful in the US because of its expensive accessories and the fact that there will be so much other competition in the casual gaming space with cheaper and more versatile devices.
3. Sony won’t have a clue what to do with the PS3 and how to integrate their services together in a fashion that is useful for people. This will cause more people to either move to the Xbox 360 or other casual gaming devices.
4. Microsoft will announce (Q2) and come out with a new console (Q4) which will finally have diskless games. Everything will be purchased and streamed from Xbox Live “the cloud” with an optional Blu-ray attachment to keep prices down.

Other

1. 3D TVs will still be pushed in retail but won’t have any compelling content. More TV manufacturers will begin to look for alternative content uses for 3D such as video gaming dual view and some things never seen before
2. Google TV and Apple TV will become casual video game consoles. Since Google and Apple don’t have any unique content, they will try to branch out into video games and apps. Apple will integrate their Apple TV with their iDevices, but Google will be too fragmented to do the same. Instead they will rely on accessories and controllers you buy in addition to the new Google TVs. Google will continue to allow manufacturers to embed Google TV software into their TVs and Apple will continue to keep things in house and come out with a better user experience. Apple will begin to build Apple TV functionality into their iMacs and displays and will make larger (32″-42″) displays that will function as TVs for some.

Let me know if you think I’m right, wrong, or crazy in the comments.

First of all, the Samsung is not that cheap, $500 is the price of a low end notebook and a high end netbook. It is also right in the sweet spot for tablets and about 1/2 the price of any notebook I’d consider good. So does a $500 web browser live up to it’s expectations? No. Here’s a quick breakdown.

Good:

• Portability – Small and light, but not as small or light as a netbook or tablet.
• User management – There is nothing to manage here, that’s a good thing.
• OS management/updates – Automatic, until there are problems. Trust me, someday, there will be problems.
• Boot/resume time – Good, but only on par with a SSD equipped netbook and less than a tablet.
• Keyboard spacing – Better spacing than a netbook and no need to muck around with onscreen keys. Oh and Dvorak support was a good surprise.

Bad:

• Build quality – Worse than low end netbooks I have used.
• Touchpad – Multitouch scrolling wasn’t as bad as the CR-48, but clicking was a nightmare.
• Missing keys (home, end, f*, delete, super) – With such a terrible touchpad I turned to the keyboard to make up for shortcomings, too bad a lot of the hotkeys I rely on for writing were absent
• missing tools (citrix/rdp, screenshots, storage) – It came down to the fact that I could not do my job with this computer, and that’s a deal breaker.
• Price – As stated above, when the price is around the same as a low end notebook running Windows, something is wrong.
• Display auto brightness – I had multiple occasions when the screen ignored all brightness level I set and did its own thing. Very rough on the eyes.
• Video out/adapter – No extended monitor means, why put video out on the thing at all?

As you can probably see, I wasn’t a fan. I used the Chromebook for 2 solid days before I gave up and went back to my HP 2560p which costs twice as much but does 1,000,000 more things (even run Chrome OS). Battery life on the Chromebook was about the same as my notebook and so was resume/sleep times which are typically two of the selling points of the Chromebook.
Because the Chromebook is not a serious work notebook, if someone asked me what they should get for casual internet browsing and games for ~$500, I’d recommend a TouchPad. If they said they needed a real keyboard, I’d tell them to get the bluetooth keyboard and touchstone. If they still didn’t want that, I’d recommend a netbook.
The Chromebook only makes sense for businesses doing the monthly rental, and if they have a Citrix environment set up so users could get real work done. As my companies Citrix XenDesktop engineer, I look forward to that day, but for my family and friends, never.