TL;DR – I was using an iPhone 4s for two years, an iPhone 5c for a few months, I really liked how fast and small they both were. I bought a Nexus 5, used it for a couple weeks, but didn’t like the size and poor camera performance. I bought a Motorola Moto X. It’s not as good as an iPhone, but it’s the best Android phone I could find.

First here is just a little bit of background about my phone priorities because my priorities are probably not yours.

1. The phone must have a good camera. And by good I mean being able to take pictures of constantly moving objects (kids) in low light (indoors).
2. The phone battery has to last at least 1 day without charging. At work I am not always at my desk and need something that I can use throughout the day without being unreachable by the end.
3. It needs to be a reasonable size. None of this Galaxy Note crap. I like smaller phones. If someone updated the specs on the HP Veer and it ran Android, I’d probably use that.
4. Usable in 2 years. I would like OS updates for at least 18 months and the phone should not feel like it’s falling apart and too slow to run apps in 24 months.
5. The phone must integrate with Google services, or have good compatible apps. This rules out Windows Phone for me.
6. Wireless charging is a huge plus. I find it convenient and love the option.

And just to be thorough, here are a few things I really don’t care about in a phone

1. Unlocking bootloaders and custom ROMs, I don’t have the time to search for and flash my phone repeatedly. Any customization I am going to make needs to be small and easy. I’m too busy to do that anymore.
2. NFC, I won’t use it, I don’t care.

With all that said, I’ve had a lot of smartphones in the past. In 2011, after webOS’ demise, I settled on the iPhone 4s as a good smartphone for my needs. It was small, fast (for its time), and had the best cell phone camera on the market. Even after two years of using it and iOS 7 update I didn’t feel the need to buy a new phone immediately. It still fulfilled my needs with Google’s apps loaded on the phone and jailbreak tweaks that let me set default apps. I bought and used a 5c for a few months and really enjoyed the slightly larger screen, better camera, and insane battery life. Under normal usage the phone lasted a full 48 hours before it was dead.

Nexus 5 Review

I bought the Nexus 5 within minutes of it being announced which is very unusual for me. I didn’t read a single review (there were none) but felt the $350 off contract price was a reasonable risk for me to take. If I didn’t like the phone I would sell it for full price or maybe lose $20-40 which was acceptable. Because I got the phone only a week after it came out that also means I was on Android 4.4 without any updates. Keep that in mind with this review because some of my complaints have been fixed via updates.

The Nexus 5 had everything I was looking for on paper. I knew the screen would be a little big but I was hoping the phone felt smaller in the hand like the Moto X did. The Nexus 5 didn’t. I had multiple issues with activating the phone but that was mostly an Android problem and not the Nexus 5. After activating I had problems with apps not installing until I rebooted the phone each time and various other weird issues but as far as I know, they were all problems with Android 4.4 and not the Nexus 5. I didn’t hear of a single other person having these problems.

The hardware looks great. The black one is completely black soft touch without any faux textures or needless embellishments that drive me crazy on phones. The edges have a slight taper which felt really good when holding the phone. The soft touch was also extra grippy, similar to the old IBM Thinkpads which was great. If you bought the white one, I’m sorry, it looks pretty bad and it’s glossy plastic.

The screen was stunning, it almost looked fake. Not only is it 1080p but the IPS LCD made the image look hyper realistic. The touch screen was so responsive it removed some of the feeling of interacting with a phone. The screen was too big to comfortably use with one hand so I always resorted to using two. It wasn’t terrible but got annoying coming from an iPhone 5c. The screen looked great while reading documents and watching videos but the traditional LCD backlight got a bit annoying when trying to use the phone at night. I typically like to read light text on a dark background, but that really only works well for OLED screens which don’t have traditional CCFL backlights. I had the same complaint with the iPhone but because the Nexus 5 had an inch bigger screen it felt like looking into a flashlight while trying to read.

The power and volume buttons had a good feel and placement on the phone and the speakers were louder than the iPhone. The earphone hole was really small though. I often found that I missed it when holding the phone to my ear and had to slide the phone to the right spot to be able to hear a call.

The micro USB on the bottom was “upside down” which was annoying and the camera lens protruded slightly from the back which made me always a little nervous I would crack it. The official cases fix the lens problem by adding some extra thickness to the back. I really like the colors of the cases but dislike cases enough that it wasn’t something I considered.

The battery wouldn’t last quite a full day. I consistently take my phone off the charger at 0600 and return home from work at 1800. By that time the phone would have about 10% battery under normal usage. I never trusted that because if I had a day of heavy usage I’m sure it would not have lasted through the work day.

The camera was, for my uses, unusable. Everything was a blurry mess. The shutter was so delayed there was no chance I was ever going to get a decent picture of a moving target. Here are just two samples to show you what I’m talking about.

This was the best of three pictures I took. And it still does not look very good with over exposed light and blurry cars.

I haven’t used the Nexus 5 since the 4.4.1 update came out and fixed some of the camera problems, but it was such a bad first impression that I gave up.

Just to wrap up the Nexus 5 review

Pros

• Great screen
• Good Soft touch texture
• Really fast

Cons

• Crap camera
• Poor battery life
• Too big

Moto X Review

I toyed with the idea of getting a Moto X before getting the Nexus 5 but the lackluster camera tests I saw made me hold off and if I were going to get one I really wanted it with a wood back. They also seemed too expensive initially at $200 on contract. After realizing I wasn’t happy with the Nexus 5 though I was able to get a promo code through Motorola’s black Friday sale which made a customized Moto X $350 off contract (same as the Nexus 5). I sold the Nexus 5 and got the Moto X even though the wood backs were not yet available. I got it because I found out you could get a soft touch back instead of the hard plastic that the in store Moto X came with from the carrier. I’ll admit The Verge staff also convinced me a little bit after hearing a lot of the editors on the Vergecast and Mobile Vergecast say they use the Moto X.

Setting up the device wasn’t nearly as painful as the Nexus 5 because the Moto X used a micro SIM card which I already had in my iPhone. I switched the SIM and logged into my Google account as usual and then it started syncing apps and accounts. The problem was the phone was REALLY slow while syncing. So slow that I just set the phone down and let it sit for about an hour. I didn’t have that problem with the Nexus 5 nor with either iPhones.

The Moto Maker option with soft-touch backs are pretty limited in color options so I ended up with an all black phone with orange accents. Disappointing, considering the cool yellows, reds, and blues they have but I also like the murdered look which is probably why I like how the Nexus 5 looks so much. The soft-touch isn’t as grippy as the Nexus 5 but was good enough to feel like a more solid device in my hand. The Motorola logo on the back has a slight dimple and for some reason I really like it. The phone is smaller than the Nexus 5 with a screen of 4.7″ and with the curved back feels really nice in the hand. The front half of the phone doesn’t have the soft-touch grip to it which looks a little odd but it’s not the worst thing in the world. The Moto X is closer to the iPhone 5 size than it is to the Nexus 5.

The power and volume buttons are both on the right side (poor lefties) which I’m not a fan of because it makes the volume rocker pretty small and hard to activate sometimes. There isn’t enough leverage to make sure I’m hitting the right button when it’s in my pocket. The power button also seems to be mounted a bit low for a “smaller” phone. The speaker is mounted on the back of the phone which, thanks to the curved back, works great when sitting on a table. But if you try to watch a video or listen to audio you’ll end up cupping your hand and not be able to hear anything still. Everything else, hardware wise, is fine and the micro USB port is even installed the way I like (not upside down).

The battery will last, just barely, a full day for me. At the end of the work day I usually have about 40% battery left (0600 until 1800) and I often can last until midnight with 5-10% left. It’s a big downgrade from the iPhone but enough I can live with. I wish the Moto X had wireless charging built in which would help getting through a day, but because it charges with micro USB I just make sure to charge it at lunch to make sure it will last.

I have never had a phone with an AMOLED display before, and although I’ve used them in the past on friends phones I never realized how nice it is for night reading and clock displays. I haven’t had any problems seeing it in the sunlight, which is a typical complaint of AMOLED, but I find myself manually adjusting the brightness more than I would on the iPhone. I think that’s an Android problem because I have done that on all my previous Android phones too.

The camera was my biggest worry with the Moto X. I had gone to the store prior to buying the phone and tested the camera just to see how Motorola’s customized software worked. I like the rapid picture mode, although it doesn’t work as well as the iPhone 5c, but I’m not sold on the tap anywhere to take a picture aspect. Overall the camera takes faster and better pictures outside than the Nexus 5 did and it doesn’t have the same shutter lag. The pictures inside are inconsistent with their color accuracy and macro shots are near impossible. Video works well and I like that it includes a slow motion video option. One thing I didn’t think I’d use was the camera gesture (two wrist flicks) but it works 80% of the time with is enough for me to try it first before using the lock screen shortcut. It gives a quick vibrate feedback and then opens the camera.

This shot took me about 10 tries before the charger was in focus and not yellow tinted from my lights

An outdoor shot that any camera should be able to take but it still turned out nice.

The rest of the Motorola add-on software is nice but sometimes a bit buggy. Here’s just some quick pointers on what they added.

• Active Notifications – Everybody loves this but I don’t find it as easy or functional as the iPhone lock screen notifications. It works alright but it’s sometimes weird to have a notification screen before your lock screen. It also sucks that you can only see info from the most recent notification.
• Assist – It does a really good job of figuring out your driving and reading you messages. The meetings mode is annoying though because it won’t see if I’m set to busy or free during the meeting. I often schedule things on my calendar that I’m willing to be interrupted for but it doesn’t take that into account.
• Trusted devices – This is probably my favorite feature by simply disabling your lock screen when connected to a bluetooth device you specify in the settings. I have it set for my car stereo and am debating getting a BT headset or smartwatch just to use this more often. It was much easier than tasker and was built into the phone.
• Motorola Help – This is a chat portal for Motorola’s support. It works really well and even gives info about your phone (SN, IMEI, etc.). I chatted with them about a problem I was having and was able to get it resolved in about 10 minutes. It doesn’t notify the support person that you’re chatting from your phone though because they recommended I reboot my phone which I wouldn’t be able to do while chatting.
• Motorola Connect – This is a way under reviewed feature which allows you to send SMS from Chrome on your computer. It also shows call logs and battery status. It has completely replaced the Google Voice plugin for me and works a lot better.
• Touchless control – allows you to say “OK Google Now” at any time to get a voice prompt. It works maybe 60% of the time and it’s annoying that it keeps jumping back and forth between Google Now and it’s interface. All the app switching makes it really slow too so I typically don’t use it. Although it is more useful than the Nexus 5s “OK Google” to search, it is no where near as good as Siri for speed, voice recognition, and functionality.

To sum it all up

Pros

• Smaller size
• Good battery life
• Add-on software that is actually useful

Cons

• Slow performance
• Bad speaker placement
• Camera not great
• Wood backs cost $100 extra

Overall I’m happy with the Moto X over the Nexus 5 but I have a feeling that in a year I will want something else. The phone will probably be too slow and because the battery will probably only last 1/2 a day. If I really wanted something I know I would be happy with in two years I probably should have stayed with an iPhone. I think most of my complaints with the Moto X are Android related and not actually problems with the Moto X hardware. Now it’s just a waiting game to see how long the Moto X will receive Android updates.

A new year is here so I’ll take another swing at how technology will change in the year 2014. This will be my sixth year doing a predictions post. If you haven’t read them before you should check out my 2013 post and then take a look at some of the older predictions I’ve made. I especially like my prediction from 2009 that Google would make a social network and twitter would be the next big social network. Anyway, here are some crazy, and not so crazy, predictions for 2014.

Computers and Mobile

1. Converging devices will finally become main stream. I know there have been devices in the past that attempted to solve the “one device to rule them all” problem. (e.g. Motorola Atrix, Asus Padfone) They have never taken off for three reasons, 1) they weren’t inter-operable, 2) they were slow, 3) they were expensive. I also know that many people already have “one device” because they have a keyboard dock on their iPad. In reality though, they just bought the cheapest Apple laptop they could. I think there will be a big name company (it won’t be Apple, see below) to offer their phones/tablets to be a true laptop/desktop replacement via a docking station that changes the user interface depending on what the device is plugged into. People have been trying to accomplish some of this functionality for a while with things like Ubuntu for Android, but the solution needs to come by default with the device for it to really take off.

2. Speaking of converged devices, Apple will have a larger iPad (12″) that can be used like a desktop and is designed for professionals. It will be more powerful than the existing iPad and will be Apple’s attempt at a “cheap” laptop. It won’t be as successful as the existing iPad though because for the general consumer they already have this functionality in their existing iPad/keyboard combo. It also won’t change the user interface when docked and just use super high resolution apps.

3. The year of the wearable computer! 2013 saw a lot of buzz in the wearable computer arena with the Pebble, Fitbit, Jawbone up, Samsung gear, etc. This year it will really take off because Google (via Motorola) and Apple will get behind the movement with wearables. I think most of the main stream adoption won’t happen until fall though because Google won’t announce anything until summer and Apple will wait for Fall. CES will be littered with crappy wearables coming out in early summer to beat the big name products.

4. Blackberry will die. I have predicted this with friends but realized I never put it on one of these predictions. Blackberry will transition to a completely software company and will fail to generate revenue. They will be gone by Q2 of 2015.

5. HP and Dell will get back into the mobile business. They probably realize by now they have to sell mobile devices if they want to keep revenue up. My guess is HP will make Android devices (they’ll suck) and Dell will make Windows Phone devices (they’ll suck even more). Samsung will spin off their own version of Android and LG will release a tablet with webOS.

Software and Web

1. Windows has been in a downward spiral since Windows 8 was announced (and even before Windows Phone 7 Series Phone). This year Windows will lose significant market share to OS X, Chrome OS, iOS, and Android. Microsoft has been scrambling to make Windows 8 better for consumers by adding features they removed. Although I don’t think consumers care about spying and the NSA, I do think that businesses care and this year businesses will actually start adopting the alternate operating systems for their employees. I think in many cases Windows will still be the work horse of the enterprise, via VDI, but Microsoft will be scrambling to find new markets in hardware, software subscriptions, and giving away stuff for free (and charging for premium features). They will also shift to a consumer company.

2. Web standardization is going to get a boost in 2014 for three reasons. 1) Security can be better when there is a good standard 2) user experience is better when everyone is on a level playing field 3) the least common denominator has been, and will continue to be, mobile. If companies want to reach the widest audience, they will have to design for slow devices, with small screens, and HTML browsers.

3. There will be a new great website in 2014. This one is a little bit obvious but I think the thing that is going to be neat is the fact that it will do something we haven’t dreamed of yet. In years past there have been some sites that changed how people interact with the internet IFTTT/Pinterest (2010), imgur (2009), and reddit (2005) are all examples of this and I think the pace of innovation is getting faster. This year a new site, one that was probably started in 2013, will become a huge success and will eventually get bought by Google or Facebook. Oh and one of the previously mentioned sites will be purchase by a big name company.

4. NSA backlash will cause big US companies to lose market share in other countries. Now that most of the spying secrets are out, many foreign companies will be looking for alternatives to the software they have been relying on for so long. Linux and open source software will be the big winner in most cases and Microsoft will be hurt the most. More and more countries will put efforts forth to build their own operating systems by customizing distributions of Linux to suit their needs.

Games

1. Virtual reality will be awesome, and niche. I wish I could say it would take off and I’m very excited for the Oculus Rift, but I don’t see many people outside of hardcore, single player gamers adopting it. Real adoption will happen in 2015-2016 when it’s wireless, cheaper, and works with consoles. I look forward to the future of virtual reality not only for games though, I also think it’s a great way to watch a movie assuming the headphones will support surround sound.

2. I predicted in 2012 that Nintendo would struggle and I still think that’ll be the case. This year I also think that Sony will have a hard time shifting from a hardware provider to a software and services company. In order to make the PS4 great and lasting they need to provide solid services and I don’t think they have the development abilities to do so.

3. Apple will get into games in a big way with a new Apple TV, first party gaming hardware, and better game center integration. Apples efforts will make everything Google has done look completely worthless, if it hasn’t already, and Google will scramble to create a better gaming platform. In reality though, Google doesn’t care and will just leave the gaming to third parties which will all suck.

Other

1. Self driving cars will hit a wall. While this is mostly figuratively speaking, although I do predict there will be the first accident involving a self driving car while the car is driving this year, I think the real “wall” autonomous vehicles will hit is legislation. Even though some states have already approved the use of the cars, there is still a long way to go before someone can buy one. There are other hurdles like re-writing laws, adapting insurance, and building better/smarter streets. Google will probably try to build their own cars but I think China will make a big move to make their own self driving cars probably by ripping off other companies technology.

2. I think 2014 will make it harder for non-skilled workers to find a job. There will probably be two or three big companies making 99% automated factories. The factories will need maintenance workers for the machines but won’t need the hundreds of assembly workers they once needed. Think how much you already interact with non-humans day to day. When was the last time you interacted with a person to fill up your gas tank? How many times have you used self checkout at the store? When was the last time you talked to a person when calling a support number? All of these things are unskilled work that have now been replaced with machines. 2014 will expand that to many new areas and make it hard for people who don’t have experience, to get experience.

3. Payment reform will begin but won’t be mainstream yet. It seems like everyone I talk to is waiting for mobile payments. It won’t happen with NFC, sorry Android fans, and geofencing is too inaccurate. Apple won’t get into the mobile payment business until 2015 (with iBeacon 2) so this year will be another year of mixed products like Google Wallet, Coin, Bitcoin, and Square. No one will win and consumers who adopt one will lose because the standard will eventually be Apple’s solution. They will release it in 2015 and allow compatible devices (a.k.a. Android) to use it. I don’t want it to be true, but that’s what I think will happen.

That’s all my predictions for 2014, do you have any you’d like to make? Leave a note in the comments if you think I’m right or wrong.

Thanks to David Hepworth for the banner picture.

Computers and Mobile

1. First of all, I really really hope that the Apple mania that has been going on for the past few years will finally die off. I don’t think it will though only because Microsoft seems to have shot themselves in the foot with Windows 8 being nothing that consumers were asking for.

2. Speaking of Windows 8. This year Windows RT will finally become a viable tablet solution. It will only happen though because Microsoft will throw billions of dollars at developers to write software, manufacturers to make hardware, and advertising. There will be no real compelling reason to buy Windows RT over another tablet because Microsoft still won’t figure out how to make a compelling ecosystem. They also will come out with a new version of the tablet OS that will run on smaller screen devices which will allow hardware to drop to the sub $500 range. Of course, the smaller tablets won’t do anything that you really want because Microsoft will artificially limit their capabilities so you’ll buy a more expensive tablet.

3. Smartphone hardware will start to level out this year and the spec race will turn into an ecosystem/software capabilities race. 3rd party manufacturers (HTC especially) will realize their limitations of not being a 1st party manufacturer. Apple, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft will all have their own hardware that can and will do things 3rd parties fail at. Because 3rd parties won’t have the benefit of making money from a robust ecosystem, they will either die or be absorbed into the main players.

4. Google will continue merging Android and Chrome OS but their focus this year will be on making hardware. Making and selling their own phone, tablet, media streamer, Google TV, DVR, router, Android at home, Google glass, and laptop will be too enticing for them. It will also help them sell more ads and know what your are doing 24/7.

5. Google glass is going to be a huge nerd success while the general public will just think WTF. But then, another company (not Apple or Microsoft) will come out with a less obtrusive wearable computer (probably a watch or clothing) and everyone will think it’s amazing! Apple’s and Microsoft’s wearable computers won’t come out till 2014-2015.

Software and Web

1. Startups will fail left and right. It will become a crashing reality for everyone trying to make it as a startup. There will be very few that are purchased by big name companies and the rest will fail. This will cause a slow down in web innovation as fewer people are willing to take a risk and lose everything.

2. Ecosystems will become more segregated and users will have to choose their alliance. Companies are finally realizing what Apple knew years ago. Lock-in not only generates sustainable money, but it also makes it hard for users to leave. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google will continue to try to lock users into an ecosystem that is not only complete (music, movies, TV, OS) but also doesn’t work well with others.

3. Facebook will also expand their ecosystem but their efforts to make money through Facebook specific promotions (gifts, perks, etc.) will ultimately drive users away from the service. Not that they will care if a million users leave the service, but there will be some out cry for people to stop using it.

4. A new company will offer a non-tablet data only (LTE) mobile device with no voice calling. No carrier will allow it on their network because they won’t make money off of it and the new company will go under. Then in 2014 Apple will have an LTE iPod touch and everyone will say “Why didn’t anyone do this before?”

Video Games

1. Indie consoles everywhere! The Kickstarter fad is going to generate a lot of small consoles that will plug into your TV that will use your phone as a controller (via Bluetooth) and they will all kinda suck. They will all run Android or Linux and none of them will have compatible app stores. They will be super cheap (~$100) but won’t catch on because there will be so many terrible knock-offs that no single console can be the winner.

2. Steambox will be the best new console! Although Steam Valve isn’t really new to the video game world, their console will be a huge hit. It will be announced at E3 and be available by Christmas. It also will cost less than a PS4 and probably the same as a Xbox 720. It will run Linux customized Ubuntu, have a limited number of games available, and have a vibrant hacking community. Ultimately the console will be better for Linux than it will be for Valve.

3. PS4 and Xbox 720 will both come out this year. Am I the only one who is over big name consoles? Until the consoles have portability or virtual reality I think I’ll stick to casual gaming on my phone and computer.

Other

1. It’s no secret that movie theaters are struggling to keep attendance. This year I suspect they will start to get creative and try to offer things that people can’t get at home. Two years ago it was 3D, this past year it was IMAX and 48 fps, in the 1920s-1930s it was widescreen video. Next year I suspect they will have some new gimmick that won’t enhance the viewing experience. Arguably not everything movie theaters come up with is a gimmick, but I have a feeling whatever they come up with next will be.

2. Likewise there will be more of a push to bring theater release movies to people’s homes. They will be outlandishly expensive but at least it will be something possible. In the next 5-10 years this will cause most movie theaters to go the way of the video arcade.

3. Self-driving cars will be a consumer reality. For the states that have approved laws, car manufacturers (not just Google) will begin testing self-driving cars. The won’t be available to the public until 2014 but if you live in one of the few states that allow it you may see them on the road.

4. The maker revolution will continue to grow. People making their own stuff and figuring out how things work has been driving a lot of innovation and next year it will only grow stronger as 3D printers become more accessible and information sharing grows. I suspect there will be a ~$250 3D printer that comes out and any company that encourages hardware modifications will be a consumer success even if most people don’t make any modifications at all.

5. Someone will succeed where Boxee failed this year with an unlimited DVR. I have a feeling it will be Amazon. They will offer a set top box that is capable of watching live TV and they also will make “recordings” available through prime instant video for prime subscribers. They will be competing mostly with Hulu but they will make the STB so cheap that it will actually catch on.

Computers and Mobile

1. The market will finally start to have tablet fatigue and the clear winners will be Apple’s iPad, Amazon’s Kindle, and Microsoft tablets. Android will still do well but no single company (besides Amazon) will be able to market and push a tablet like the tech giants. And cheap tablets will, in the end, have more market share than expensive ones. Which is also why Apple will probably come out with a cheaper tablet ($350-$400) to compete.
2. Ultrabooks are going to be everywhere this year. They will try to compete with tablets and the MacBook Air but will only gain traction when they drop to $500 or less. A lot of users won’t even care though because they can do most of their work on a $250 tablet.
3. Google will merge Android and Chrome OS in an attempt to compete with what Microsoft comes out with in Windows 8. It will work similarly to how Motorola’s splashtop works now, but accessories will be more universal and the lapdock OS will work better.
4. Apple’s iPhone 5 will set new records for sales, Android will remain in the lead (because of the volume of devices), Windows Phone 7 will eat away at iPhone market because of Windows users who are fed up with Apple’s ecosystem, and RIM/webOS/etc. will all be forgotten by the main stream.
5. Google will also come out with a dumb phone version of Android for developing countries, and non-smartphones. These phones will typically not have touch screens but will be able to run some Android apps.

Software and Web

1. Windows 8 will have versatile tablets and will serve multiple purposes as tablets/notebooks/desktops. Businesses will buy them by the boatload in an attempt to allow users to stay mobile and save some money. The tablets won’t be as functional as notebooks but will be the cool thing for at least another year. In order to use all of Windows 8′s cloud featuers you will have to start using Microsoft’s server backend which will sway even more users towards Apple computers. Consumers won’t really care about this functionality and there will be a small market for accessories and docks because the interfaces will not be universal like they will be for Android/Chrome OS.
2. Desktop applications will take a hit in sales as more users realize they can do what they need with web apps. Google Docs and Office Live will start to gain steam with the general public, but I think another app entirely will become the winner. Probably something that integrates with Facebook. This will also help propel Google even further with Chrome OS.
3. Streaming music will hit main stream and people will finally stop buying CDs. Spotify will probably be the winner because of it’s Facebook integration. We will also see other companies start their own music streaming services (Verizon, Comcast, etc.) and they will all be terrible.
4. Streaming video will still struggle throughout the year because content providers will not lower the prices for digital downloads and streaming. Netflix will have some major competition this year and will continue to lose market as other competition gets more content, and has cheaper prices.
5. Social network exhaustion will set in for many as options will continue to expand. By the end of 2012 Facebook will still be the clear winner in social but many users will just be worn out on trying to keep up with all of their online friends.
6. Voice control is going to have a huge push because of devices that don’t have keyboards. Siri will lead the way thanks to hacks, but Microsoft and Google will both have answers in 2012. Neither will be as consistant on devices because they cannot control the entire ecosystem. Google and Microsoft will try to be more open with their voice control and will start to persuade users off of Siri, but Apple will allow 3rd party plugins and accessories which will keep a lot of the voice control usefulness on their side.

Video Games

1. Mobile gaming will die. The Vita and DS are doomed due to the fact that the consoles and games cost so much. People will keep using their phones, music players, and tablets as casual gaming consoles and won’t even bother to buy the more expensive consoles. Micro payments will be huge in 2012.
2. Nintendo will struggle to find a new market. Their Wii U will be mostly unsuccessful in the US because of its expensive accessories and the fact that there will be so much other competition in the casual gaming space with cheaper and more versatile devices.
3. Sony won’t have a clue what to do with the PS3 and how to integrate their services together in a fashion that is useful for people. This will cause more people to either move to the Xbox 360 or other casual gaming devices.
4. Microsoft will announce (Q2) and come out with a new console (Q4) which will finally have diskless games. Everything will be purchased and streamed from Xbox Live “the cloud” with an optional Blu-ray attachment to keep prices down.

Other

1. 3D TVs will still be pushed in retail but won’t have any compelling content. More TV manufacturers will begin to look for alternative content uses for 3D such as video gaming dual view and some things never seen before
2. Google TV and Apple TV will become casual video game consoles. Since Google and Apple don’t have any unique content, they will try to branch out into video games and apps. Apple will integrate their Apple TV with their iDevices, but Google will be too fragmented to do the same. Instead they will rely on accessories and controllers you buy in addition to the new Google TVs. Google will continue to allow manufacturers to embed Google TV software into their TVs and Apple will continue to keep things in house and come out with a better user experience. Apple will begin to build Apple TV functionality into their iMacs and displays and will make larger (32″-42″) displays that will function as TVs for some.

Let me know if you think I’m right, wrong, or crazy in the comments.

Depending on who you ask, Android is winning the smartphone market. The problem is Android is such a fragmented piece of crap that no phone has anywhere near the same market share as the iPhone. Counting Android by including every phone in existence is like counting Honda’s market share by counting cars, quads, generators, and blenders in the same category. The reason Android is “winning” is because they provide a free platform that any manufacture can take, modify, and put on any hardware they deem fit. This provides a ton of freedom for manufactures and carriers to make money by differentiating their software/hardware and attempt to make some sort of brand loyalty. Because of this freedom, 60% of all smartphones available on the four major U.S. carriers are Android devices. With ICS, Google just lopt off the head of their own business model.

Software

With Android 4.0, Google is attempting to unify the software platforms to allow customers to get the latest and greatest version no matter what device they have. Devices not receiving updates has been a sore spot for Android for years and Google is trying to remedy that. Google plan is to allow users to uninstall anything that ships with their devices. The problem is, manufacturers rely on widgets and skins that give them brand (dis-)loyalty. This is one of the key ways that a manufacturer can set their version of Android apart from someone else’s. If users have the ability to uninstall that skinning, manufacturers have no real purpose to develop any special software unless they go all out and remove that functionality like the Kindle Fire.

Carriers also rely on putting bloatware in phones for 3 reasons:

1. It allows customers to easily buy services from the carrier
2. It differentiates services between carriers (e.g. NFL mobile)
3. It gives carriers kick-backs by including games/apps when users buy the full version

If users can uninstall the bloatware, manufacturers won’t have a reason to spend money to develop and pre-install these apps.

The lack of software differentiation is very similar to Windows Phone 7 where carriers are not able to skin the operating system, and users can uninstall any 3rd party software, even bloatware.

Hardware

Hardware differentiation has been Android’s real bread and butter. You can have devices as simplistic as the Nexus S and crazy as the Echo. Hardware fragmentation has been yet another layer of difficulty for customers to get upgrades. Right now (< Android 3.0) software upgrades have to be written on a phone by phone basis by the manufacturer and approved by the carrier (except Nexus devices). If the carrier doesn’t want your phone to be upgraded, because they’d rather you buy a different, more-better phone, you’re SOL. It is then up to the hacking community to port newer versions of Android to your device, and you had better hope that the manufacturer didn’t lock your bootloader and you bought a popular phone otherwise you are, once again, SOL.

With ICS, it “theoretically” will work on a lot of the newer Android devices, but you still have to play the wait-and-see game if you will ever get that update. Waiting for Android updates is like watching paint dry for the 21st century. Except sometimes, the paint never dries.

Google is once again trying to remedy the situation by creating standards for new ICS devices. With on screen buttons, super high resolution screens, fast processors, and GPUs my 2005 desktop would be jealous of. Only problem is, with hardware standards, Google limits manufacturers ability to differentiate (i.e. fragment) which means all the new Android devices will be similar, if not identical like Windows Phone 7.

If carriers cannot differentiate on software or hardware, why would they pick Android at all? There’s no brand loyalty, less 3rd party app money, and no unique hardware features. All there will be is jobless developers (those that develop HTC Sense for example), up to date phones, and happy customers. That sounds great, until you realize that Microsoft did this exact same thing a year ago with Windows Phone 7 and all it has got them is 5 identical phones, no brand loyalty, terrible sales, and slightly happier customers. I am glad Google killed Android, but I think they have a long way to go before they figure out the best method to resurrect Android into a world conquering force. After all, there can only be one Jesus Phone; everything else is just a zombie.

Computers

1. First of all 2011 will be the year of the tablet. That isn’t a prediction, it’s more of a fact. I think the big winner in the tablet world will eventually be Google with Android simply because they will have the cheapest and most devices. This has already been proven true with cell phones.
2. Even though the company with the cheapest and most devices will eventually win, advertising will win the tablet market in the short term. It doesn’t matter who has the best device or the best software. The company who has the most successful marketing campaign will win. This makes me think that the iPad will continue to sell well, the Blackberry Playbook will have a decent market, even though it will suck, and HP won’t have much traction unless they change their strategy. In the end, Android will still probably take the lead because they will have the most companies pushing Android tablets.
3. Because of tablets in the <$500 range I think laptops will begin to take a hit in sales. While this has already been reported with the iPad, it will actually be true in 2011. Oh and desktops don't have a chance. Even businesses will begin to go away from desktops and start offering more laptops, tablets, and thin clients.
4. Apple and Microsoft will begin to change their strategy for their computer operating systems. I think Microsoft will begin to rely heavily on "cloud computing" and try to offer some of their own services but mainly focus on always connected devices with instant on. Apple, on the other hand, still won't embrace 3rd party cloud services and will expand their own Mobile Me platform and continue to segregate their users. While this won't cause an Apple revolt in 2011, I think there may be an uprising in 2012.
5. Microsoft won't have a real answer to Windows on a tablet. While they will have lots of plans and still push out devices, they won't have something that is finger friendly until 2012. Even though what they should do is put Windows Phone 7 on tablets.

Cellphones

1. Smartphones will continue to expand their market and the Verizon iPhone will finally come out. The iPhone market share won’t go up as much as some people expect because most people that want a smartphone are already entrenched in the platform they are on now. And 2011 will have so many good phone operating systems that the iPhone won’t be “the best” anymore. iPhone market will still go up, but it won’t catch Android.
2. AT&T will be forced to stop riding the iPhone success wave and either slash their prices or finally get some decent devices. My theory is they will reach out to HP and Blackberry for exclusive devices rather than lowering prices to Sprint and T-Mobile level.
3. Network will be the big marketing push for carriers at first but that will die down near the end of the year because most of the networks will begin to share the same coverage and network technology. Also phones will become less exclusive because quad-band and penta-band phones will become the norm. Although 2011 will still see very few LTE voice devices.
4. Customers will start adding devices to their contracts because more devices will have cellular radios and the wireless data will finally became fast enough to use. I think there may even be a push for people to ditch their traditional internet provider and just tether their phone/buy a modem because it will be cheaper for them.

Video Games

1. Nintendo will finally have to announce a new console. The Wii sales will drop so much that Nintendo will updated it to a Wii HD that has Blu-ray, HD graphics, and 3D capabilities. They will also incorporate the Wii Motion Plus controller into the standard remote and probably have a standard webcam with a high focus on video chatting and video integration into games. I am hopeful that people will finally become tired of the same thing and Nintendo’s success will plummet until they are innovative again.
2. Microsoft won’t announce a new console at E3 but will probably hint at something coming in 2012. They will continue to update the Xbox 360 to add value to the system, but developers will need more processing power and more storage space to push the envelope. And they won’t get that from the 360 because of the fragmentation of the console install base.
3. Sony won’t come out with a new console but will finally create better online services that will allow developers to easily take advantage of cross game chat, universal lobby rooms, and video chat without having to program it from scratch.
4. A new company, or possibly existing company, will come out with a “console” with the main focus of bringing PC games to the TV. It will be similar to OnLive but will have a better library and subscription model that will actually be successful. They will also include support for iOS and Android if they truly want to “make it”.

Other

1. There will be a decline in major technology breakthroughs because the economy will finally level out and companies will realize that they can’t just keep pushing new products because people aren’t buying them. This won’t stop companies from coming out with new things, but big breakthroughs won’t happen as often as they did in 2009 because people don’t have the money to buy it and companies don’t have the money to develop it.
2. Streaming services will continue to try and eat away at the cable TV market but it will take big companies like Google, Microsoft, or Apple to make it truly successful. I am hopeful that Microsoft will finally make a all-you-can-eat video service, a la Zune pass, that will work on the 360 and Windows that might compete. No matter what, a pay-per-view model will not work, and content providers will be stubborn to allow this type of model.

That is all I got for this year. Let me know if you have any predictions in the comments or if you agree/disagree. Either way I hope everyones 2011 is great and I am looking forward to all the announcements to come.

Ease of use; Winner: 2-way tie
This one we can call a tie between iOS 4 and webOS because both interfaces are just as easy to launch and run apps and both have little things that you need to get used to. Double tapping the home screen to switch apps isn’t super intuitive and neither is forward/back gestures in webOS. In either case, Android is the loser.

Openness; Winner: webOS
Obviously iOS loses here, Android is open source for its core OS and allows installing apps from outside of the marketplace but so does webOS. Where webOS takes the cake is the fact that there is no rooting of your phone to get access to parts that are supposed to be locked down. How to root the phone is FREAKING IN THE DOCUMENTATION!!! It doesn’t get any more open then that. And lets not forget the open nature of the platform to allow apps to be written in HTML, CSS, Javascript, or C/C++ if you want. Due to this wide open nature, amazing things like Preware has been made available to tweak every last “kernel” of your phone.
Google also loses by making their “default” apps (Gmail, Maps, etc.) completely closed source and even takes down anyone who tries to share them. Palm on the other hand has written every built in app according to the standards they hold their developers to and made the apps all open source so you could see exactly how they built the app. Android and webOS are both fairly open, but webOS is more open and is the winner here.

Battery Life; Winner: Bogus Category
WTF is this doing here?!? This has everything to do with hardware and almost nothing to do with software. In any case, I think we can agree that Android loses this category with almost zero battery conserving settings and complaints on almost every Android device. This is a bogus comparison when trying to compare mobile operating systems. If this were a debate between the iPhone 4, Evo 4G, and Palm Pre Plus this would be a perfectly valid comparison.

Multitasking; Winner: webOS
This is a no brainer. WebOS does multitasking better than any other mobile OS available period. Android is the only other one that even can run apps in the background but there is a reason that a task killer is the first thing every Android phone needs. And lets not even get into the difference between running apps and using approved services and fast app switching.

Software Keyboard; Winner: 2-way tie
iOS has evolved into the best software keyboard and Android actually gives you options for keyboards, I would call this a tie because if you want to use swype on Android, you can. A software keyboard is only good if you are used to its idiosyncrasies and can use it. Personally, I rarely have to get used to a hardware keyboard, but webOS doesn’t even have a proper soft keyboard option.

System-Wide Search; Winner: 3-way tie
They all have it, they all work about the same with the same oddities and features. It is a tie. But just for the record, Android and webOS did it first.

Notification System; Winner: webOS
Once again iOS is the clear loser here, and while I liked the idea of Android’s curtain at first it just plain sucks after using it for a few months. I can’t clear a single notification without clearing all of the notifications and I can’t have extended controls in a notification. I know it is possible, but in all the apps I have installed, I have never seen actual controls inside the notification, just an icon that always stays there and opens the app when pressed.

Voice-to-text; Winner: Android
This works really well 80% of the time in Android and is the clear winner without a doubt. The bad thing is, I only use it 5% of the time I am inputting any text. So it is great 4% of the time I input text but really wouldn’t be a missed function and I still would prefer a proper physical keyboard.

Syncing; Winner: 2-way tie
Who the hell wants to plug their phone into their computer anyway? iOS loses here because you need iTunes for updates and setup. Android is great as long as you use Gmail and have a Google account. WebOS creates an account for you and stores all of your settings AND apps installed. So with webOS, if you break/lose your phone, you can log in with your Palm account and not only do all your settings from every service (sans Facebook) come back, but the apps you had installed come too.

Non-Google Syncing; Winner: webOS
Ever heard of Synergy? You probably haven’t, but it wins. Gmail, Facebook, Yahoo, LinkedIn, and Exchange are all there, out of the box. There is not contest here.

Tethering; Winner: webOS
iOS is just now putting this feature in but because it has the typical Apple restrictions, (no teather in to the iPad, really?) and Android still costs money on any carrier that will allow it, webOS wins because it is available on the Pre Plus and Pixi Plus and is completely free on Verizon. Yes I know if you root your Android phone you can do it for free, guess what, you can do the same thing in iOS and webOS so no one cares. Heck, Windows Mobile 6.1 had this feature and it worked great and was always free, doesn’t mean WM is any good.

Release/Update Consistancy; Winner: Bogus Category
HUH?!? really? What does this have to do with how good a mobile OS is? because you know you will get an update every year? Is Windows better because you get patches every first Tuesday of the month? Or the fact that a new and improved Windows will come out every 3-5 years? NO it makes it worse. This shouldn’t even be on this list.

Customizable; Winner: 2-way tie
If we are talking about user customizations, Android wins hands down. Widgets are great, icons can be placed almost anywhere, and you can set anything you want as a background image. But if we want to talk about the underlying OS, that is a win for webOS. Just go look up Preware and kernel patches and then come back and see why I picked this as a tie for Android and webOS. Oh and I agree, webOS needs to allow more home/lock screen customizations. Widgets sure would be nice but not at the cost of slowing my phone down like it does in Android.

Apps; Winner: 2-way tie
WebOS cannot complete here. Both Android and iOS have >50,000 apps and at that point it just doesn’t matter. There will probably be an app for just about everything. I would actually call this one a slight win for Android just because you can still install apps outside of the marketplace and the web store they have announced should be a huge success. Oh ya, and that whole Apple approval process is a joke.

Web Browsing; Winner: 3-way tie
They are all based on webKit so what does it matter. Some will scroll faster than others and some have better resolutions, but that all depends on the phone and doesn’t matter for rendering. Android and webOS may have slight wins over iOS because they have embraced Adobe flash but once again, that is a phone specific thing because the device has to be up-to-snuff for playing flash content. A three way tie.

Gaming; Winner: 2-way tie
Android doesn’t even have a language that enables the rich games that iOS and webOS allow. And besides the quantity, webOS has every bit of the quality as iOS so it is a tie.

Music Player; Winner: 2-way tie
Android’s built in music player is terrible, iOS’ is as good as any iPod’s (which doesn’t really say much), and webOS’ is just OK. The fact that webOS’ player is open source makes the player really stand out from the crowd when you install simple things like lyrics, and wikipedia searches straight from the player. I know there are better 3rd party players on all the platforms but that is not what we are comparing here. So it is a tie between stock iOS and stock webOS.

Free Turn-by-Turn Navigation; Winner: Android
This is a killer feature, but lets be honest, this will probably come to iOS and webOS simply because Google can sell more ads if it exists on all the platforms. For right now though, it is a win for Android.

Google Apps Integration; Winner: Android
This is like saying iOS has the best iTunes integration. OF COURSE ANDROID IS INTEGRATED WITH GOOGLE APPS. If Android did not have the best app for Gmail I think we would all be very worried. This is one of those arguments that fluffs Androids numbers IMO, but I will leave it in just for the sake of argument. Every mobile OS will integrate with their own offerings, the problem is, Apple and Palm don’t have email or web app offerings. This is more a win for Google and less of a win for Android.

Google Voice; Winner: 2-way tie
Yes this is a cool feature, I have it (and have had it since it was Grand Central) but I never use it because it is iffy and I don’t think the service is quite there yet. In any case, both Android and webOS have native apps for Google Voice and iOS is stuck using a web page. Android integrates deeper into the system, but all of the basic features/settings can be set on either platform so it is a tie.It has come to my attention that webOS no longer has a native GV dialer since some of the recent webOS API changes. I was unaware that a recent update broke this compatibility. In any case, it is somewhat of a bogus category seeing as accounts are still invite only and I am sure only 1-2% of people who have GV even use it for their daily calls.

So what is that total again? This time taking out the stupid frivolous comparisons.
iOS = 7
Android = 10
webOS = 13

Do I own a iPhone, Android phone, or Palm device? No. I have a 4 year old Windows Mobile device (HTC Vogue) running Android 2.1. I have use plenty of iPhones and have convinced quite a few people to buy webOS devices. I just needed to let the few people who read this site know webOS is the best mobile operating system currently available on the market. I just hope other technology sites can finally recognize how great webOS is, and maybe stop focusing on flaws with a phone that came out when the original iPhone was still big news.