TL;DR – I was using an iPhone 4s for two years, an iPhone 5c for a few months, I really liked how fast and small they both were. I bought a Nexus 5, used it for a couple weeks, but didn’t like the size and poor camera performance. I bought a Motorola Moto X. It’s not as good as an iPhone, but it’s the best Android phone I could find.

First here is just a little bit of background about my phone priorities because my priorities are probably not yours.

1. The phone must have a good camera. And by good I mean being able to take pictures of constantly moving objects (kids) in low light (indoors).
2. The phone battery has to last at least 1 day without charging. At work I am not always at my desk and need something that I can use throughout the day without being unreachable by the end.
3. It needs to be a reasonable size. None of this Galaxy Note crap. I like smaller phones. If someone updated the specs on the HP Veer and it ran Android, I’d probably use that.
4. Usable in 2 years. I would like OS updates for at least 18 months and the phone should not feel like it’s falling apart and too slow to run apps in 24 months.
5. The phone must integrate with Google services, or have good compatible apps. This rules out Windows Phone for me.
6. Wireless charging is a huge plus. I find it convenient and love the option.

And just to be thorough, here are a few things I really don’t care about in a phone

1. Unlocking bootloaders and custom ROMs, I don’t have the time to search for and flash my phone repeatedly. Any customization I am going to make needs to be small and easy. I’m too busy to do that anymore.
2. NFC, I won’t use it, I don’t care.

With all that said, I’ve had a lot of smartphones in the past. In 2011, after webOS’ demise, I settled on the iPhone 4s as a good smartphone for my needs. It was small, fast (for its time), and had the best cell phone camera on the market. Even after two years of using it and iOS 7 update I didn’t feel the need to buy a new phone immediately. It still fulfilled my needs with Google’s apps loaded on the phone and jailbreak tweaks that let me set default apps. I bought and used a 5c for a few months and really enjoyed the slightly larger screen, better camera, and insane battery life. Under normal usage the phone lasted a full 48 hours before it was dead.

Nexus 5 Review

I bought the Nexus 5 within minutes of it being announced which is very unusual for me. I didn’t read a single review (there were none) but felt the $350 off contract price was a reasonable risk for me to take. If I didn’t like the phone I would sell it for full price or maybe lose $20-40 which was acceptable. Because I got the phone only a week after it came out that also means I was on Android 4.4 without any updates. Keep that in mind with this review because some of my complaints have been fixed via updates.

The Nexus 5 had everything I was looking for on paper. I knew the screen would be a little big but I was hoping the phone felt smaller in the hand like the Moto X did. The Nexus 5 didn’t. I had multiple issues with activating the phone but that was mostly an Android problem and not the Nexus 5. After activating I had problems with apps not installing until I rebooted the phone each time and various other weird issues but as far as I know, they were all problems with Android 4.4 and not the Nexus 5. I didn’t hear of a single other person having these problems.

The hardware looks great. The black one is completely black soft touch without any faux textures or needless embellishments that drive me crazy on phones. The edges have a slight taper which felt really good when holding the phone. The soft touch was also extra grippy, similar to the old IBM Thinkpads which was great. If you bought the white one, I’m sorry, it looks pretty bad and it’s glossy plastic.

The screen was stunning, it almost looked fake. Not only is it 1080p but the IPS LCD made the image look hyper realistic. The touch screen was so responsive it removed some of the feeling of interacting with a phone. The screen was too big to comfortably use with one hand so I always resorted to using two. It wasn’t terrible but got annoying coming from an iPhone 5c. The screen looked great while reading documents and watching videos but the traditional LCD backlight got a bit annoying when trying to use the phone at night. I typically like to read light text on a dark background, but that really only works well for OLED screens which don’t have traditional CCFL backlights. I had the same complaint with the iPhone but because the Nexus 5 had an inch bigger screen it felt like looking into a flashlight while trying to read.

The power and volume buttons had a good feel and placement on the phone and the speakers were louder than the iPhone. The earphone hole was really small though. I often found that I missed it when holding the phone to my ear and had to slide the phone to the right spot to be able to hear a call.

The micro USB on the bottom was “upside down” which was annoying and the camera lens protruded slightly from the back which made me always a little nervous I would crack it. The official cases fix the lens problem by adding some extra thickness to the back. I really like the colors of the cases but dislike cases enough that it wasn’t something I considered.

The battery wouldn’t last quite a full day. I consistently take my phone off the charger at 0600 and return home from work at 1800. By that time the phone would have about 10% battery under normal usage. I never trusted that because if I had a day of heavy usage I’m sure it would not have lasted through the work day.

The camera was, for my uses, unusable. Everything was a blurry mess. The shutter was so delayed there was no chance I was ever going to get a decent picture of a moving target. Here are just two samples to show you what I’m talking about.

This was the best of three pictures I took. And it still does not look very good with over exposed light and blurry cars.

I haven’t used the Nexus 5 since the 4.4.1 update came out and fixed some of the camera problems, but it was such a bad first impression that I gave up.

Just to wrap up the Nexus 5 review

Pros

• Great screen
• Good Soft touch texture
• Really fast

Cons

• Crap camera
• Poor battery life
• Too big

Moto X Review

I toyed with the idea of getting a Moto X before getting the Nexus 5 but the lackluster camera tests I saw made me hold off and if I were going to get one I really wanted it with a wood back. They also seemed too expensive initially at $200 on contract. After realizing I wasn’t happy with the Nexus 5 though I was able to get a promo code through Motorola’s black Friday sale which made a customized Moto X $350 off contract (same as the Nexus 5). I sold the Nexus 5 and got the Moto X even though the wood backs were not yet available. I got it because I found out you could get a soft touch back instead of the hard plastic that the in store Moto X came with from the carrier. I’ll admit The Verge staff also convinced me a little bit after hearing a lot of the editors on the Vergecast and Mobile Vergecast say they use the Moto X.

Setting up the device wasn’t nearly as painful as the Nexus 5 because the Moto X used a micro SIM card which I already had in my iPhone. I switched the SIM and logged into my Google account as usual and then it started syncing apps and accounts. The problem was the phone was REALLY slow while syncing. So slow that I just set the phone down and let it sit for about an hour. I didn’t have that problem with the Nexus 5 nor with either iPhones.

The Moto Maker option with soft-touch backs are pretty limited in color options so I ended up with an all black phone with orange accents. Disappointing, considering the cool yellows, reds, and blues they have but I also like the murdered look which is probably why I like how the Nexus 5 looks so much. The soft-touch isn’t as grippy as the Nexus 5 but was good enough to feel like a more solid device in my hand. The Motorola logo on the back has a slight dimple and for some reason I really like it. The phone is smaller than the Nexus 5 with a screen of 4.7″ and with the curved back feels really nice in the hand. The front half of the phone doesn’t have the soft-touch grip to it which looks a little odd but it’s not the worst thing in the world. The Moto X is closer to the iPhone 5 size than it is to the Nexus 5.

The power and volume buttons are both on the right side (poor lefties) which I’m not a fan of because it makes the volume rocker pretty small and hard to activate sometimes. There isn’t enough leverage to make sure I’m hitting the right button when it’s in my pocket. The power button also seems to be mounted a bit low for a “smaller” phone. The speaker is mounted on the back of the phone which, thanks to the curved back, works great when sitting on a table. But if you try to watch a video or listen to audio you’ll end up cupping your hand and not be able to hear anything still. Everything else, hardware wise, is fine and the micro USB port is even installed the way I like (not upside down).

The battery will last, just barely, a full day for me. At the end of the work day I usually have about 40% battery left (0600 until 1800) and I often can last until midnight with 5-10% left. It’s a big downgrade from the iPhone but enough I can live with. I wish the Moto X had wireless charging built in which would help getting through a day, but because it charges with micro USB I just make sure to charge it at lunch to make sure it will last.

I have never had a phone with an AMOLED display before, and although I’ve used them in the past on friends phones I never realized how nice it is for night reading and clock displays. I haven’t had any problems seeing it in the sunlight, which is a typical complaint of AMOLED, but I find myself manually adjusting the brightness more than I would on the iPhone. I think that’s an Android problem because I have done that on all my previous Android phones too.

The camera was my biggest worry with the Moto X. I had gone to the store prior to buying the phone and tested the camera just to see how Motorola’s customized software worked. I like the rapid picture mode, although it doesn’t work as well as the iPhone 5c, but I’m not sold on the tap anywhere to take a picture aspect. Overall the camera takes faster and better pictures outside than the Nexus 5 did and it doesn’t have the same shutter lag. The pictures inside are inconsistent with their color accuracy and macro shots are near impossible. Video works well and I like that it includes a slow motion video option. One thing I didn’t think I’d use was the camera gesture (two wrist flicks) but it works 80% of the time with is enough for me to try it first before using the lock screen shortcut. It gives a quick vibrate feedback and then opens the camera.

This shot took me about 10 tries before the charger was in focus and not yellow tinted from my lights

An outdoor shot that any camera should be able to take but it still turned out nice.

The rest of the Motorola add-on software is nice but sometimes a bit buggy. Here’s just some quick pointers on what they added.

• Active Notifications – Everybody loves this but I don’t find it as easy or functional as the iPhone lock screen notifications. It works alright but it’s sometimes weird to have a notification screen before your lock screen. It also sucks that you can only see info from the most recent notification.
• Assist – It does a really good job of figuring out your driving and reading you messages. The meetings mode is annoying though because it won’t see if I’m set to busy or free during the meeting. I often schedule things on my calendar that I’m willing to be interrupted for but it doesn’t take that into account.
• Trusted devices – This is probably my favorite feature by simply disabling your lock screen when connected to a bluetooth device you specify in the settings. I have it set for my car stereo and am debating getting a BT headset or smartwatch just to use this more often. It was much easier than tasker and was built into the phone.
• Motorola Help – This is a chat portal for Motorola’s support. It works really well and even gives info about your phone (SN, IMEI, etc.). I chatted with them about a problem I was having and was able to get it resolved in about 10 minutes. It doesn’t notify the support person that you’re chatting from your phone though because they recommended I reboot my phone which I wouldn’t be able to do while chatting.
• Motorola Connect – This is a way under reviewed feature which allows you to send SMS from Chrome on your computer. It also shows call logs and battery status. It has completely replaced the Google Voice plugin for me and works a lot better.
• Touchless control – allows you to say “OK Google Now” at any time to get a voice prompt. It works maybe 60% of the time and it’s annoying that it keeps jumping back and forth between Google Now and it’s interface. All the app switching makes it really slow too so I typically don’t use it. Although it is more useful than the Nexus 5s “OK Google” to search, it is no where near as good as Siri for speed, voice recognition, and functionality.

To sum it all up

Pros

• Smaller size
• Good battery life
• Add-on software that is actually useful

Cons

• Slow performance
• Bad speaker placement
• Camera not great
• Wood backs cost $100 extra

Overall I’m happy with the Moto X over the Nexus 5 but I have a feeling that in a year I will want something else. The phone will probably be too slow and because the battery will probably only last 1/2 a day. If I really wanted something I know I would be happy with in two years I probably should have stayed with an iPhone. I think most of my complaints with the Moto X are Android related and not actually problems with the Moto X hardware. Now it’s just a waiting game to see how long the Moto X will receive Android updates.

A new year is here so I’ll take another swing at how technology will change in the year 2014. This will be my sixth year doing a predictions post. If you haven’t read them before you should check out my 2013 post and then take a look at some of the older predictions I’ve made. I especially like my prediction from 2009 that Google would make a social network and twitter would be the next big social network. Anyway, here are some crazy, and not so crazy, predictions for 2014.

Computers and Mobile

1. Converging devices will finally become main stream. I know there have been devices in the past that attempted to solve the “one device to rule them all” problem. (e.g. Motorola Atrix, Asus Padfone) They have never taken off for three reasons, 1) they weren’t inter-operable, 2) they were slow, 3) they were expensive. I also know that many people already have “one device” because they have a keyboard dock on their iPad. In reality though, they just bought the cheapest Apple laptop they could. I think there will be a big name company (it won’t be Apple, see below) to offer their phones/tablets to be a true laptop/desktop replacement via a docking station that changes the user interface depending on what the device is plugged into. People have been trying to accomplish some of this functionality for a while with things like Ubuntu for Android, but the solution needs to come by default with the device for it to really take off.

2. Speaking of converged devices, Apple will have a larger iPad (12″) that can be used like a desktop and is designed for professionals. It will be more powerful than the existing iPad and will be Apple’s attempt at a “cheap” laptop. It won’t be as successful as the existing iPad though because for the general consumer they already have this functionality in their existing iPad/keyboard combo. It also won’t change the user interface when docked and just use super high resolution apps.

3. The year of the wearable computer! 2013 saw a lot of buzz in the wearable computer arena with the Pebble, Fitbit, Jawbone up, Samsung gear, etc. This year it will really take off because Google (via Motorola) and Apple will get behind the movement with wearables. I think most of the main stream adoption won’t happen until fall though because Google won’t announce anything until summer and Apple will wait for Fall. CES will be littered with crappy wearables coming out in early summer to beat the big name products.

4. Blackberry will die. I have predicted this with friends but realized I never put it on one of these predictions. Blackberry will transition to a completely software company and will fail to generate revenue. They will be gone by Q2 of 2015.

5. HP and Dell will get back into the mobile business. They probably realize by now they have to sell mobile devices if they want to keep revenue up. My guess is HP will make Android devices (they’ll suck) and Dell will make Windows Phone devices (they’ll suck even more). Samsung will spin off their own version of Android and LG will release a tablet with webOS.

Software and Web

1. Windows has been in a downward spiral since Windows 8 was announced (and even before Windows Phone 7 Series Phone). This year Windows will lose significant market share to OS X, Chrome OS, iOS, and Android. Microsoft has been scrambling to make Windows 8 better for consumers by adding features they removed. Although I don’t think consumers care about spying and the NSA, I do think that businesses care and this year businesses will actually start adopting the alternate operating systems for their employees. I think in many cases Windows will still be the work horse of the enterprise, via VDI, but Microsoft will be scrambling to find new markets in hardware, software subscriptions, and giving away stuff for free (and charging for premium features). They will also shift to a consumer company.

2. Web standardization is going to get a boost in 2014 for three reasons. 1) Security can be better when there is a good standard 2) user experience is better when everyone is on a level playing field 3) the least common denominator has been, and will continue to be, mobile. If companies want to reach the widest audience, they will have to design for slow devices, with small screens, and HTML browsers.

3. There will be a new great website in 2014. This one is a little bit obvious but I think the thing that is going to be neat is the fact that it will do something we haven’t dreamed of yet. In years past there have been some sites that changed how people interact with the internet IFTTT/Pinterest (2010), imgur (2009), and reddit (2005) are all examples of this and I think the pace of innovation is getting faster. This year a new site, one that was probably started in 2013, will become a huge success and will eventually get bought by Google or Facebook. Oh and one of the previously mentioned sites will be purchase by a big name company.

4. NSA backlash will cause big US companies to lose market share in other countries. Now that most of the spying secrets are out, many foreign companies will be looking for alternatives to the software they have been relying on for so long. Linux and open source software will be the big winner in most cases and Microsoft will be hurt the most. More and more countries will put efforts forth to build their own operating systems by customizing distributions of Linux to suit their needs.

Games

1. Virtual reality will be awesome, and niche. I wish I could say it would take off and I’m very excited for the Oculus Rift, but I don’t see many people outside of hardcore, single player gamers adopting it. Real adoption will happen in 2015-2016 when it’s wireless, cheaper, and works with consoles. I look forward to the future of virtual reality not only for games though, I also think it’s a great way to watch a movie assuming the headphones will support surround sound.

2. I predicted in 2012 that Nintendo would struggle and I still think that’ll be the case. This year I also think that Sony will have a hard time shifting from a hardware provider to a software and services company. In order to make the PS4 great and lasting they need to provide solid services and I don’t think they have the development abilities to do so.

3. Apple will get into games in a big way with a new Apple TV, first party gaming hardware, and better game center integration. Apples efforts will make everything Google has done look completely worthless, if it hasn’t already, and Google will scramble to create a better gaming platform. In reality though, Google doesn’t care and will just leave the gaming to third parties which will all suck.

Other

1. Self driving cars will hit a wall. While this is mostly figuratively speaking, although I do predict there will be the first accident involving a self driving car while the car is driving this year, I think the real “wall” autonomous vehicles will hit is legislation. Even though some states have already approved the use of the cars, there is still a long way to go before someone can buy one. There are other hurdles like re-writing laws, adapting insurance, and building better/smarter streets. Google will probably try to build their own cars but I think China will make a big move to make their own self driving cars probably by ripping off other companies technology.

2. I think 2014 will make it harder for non-skilled workers to find a job. There will probably be two or three big companies making 99% automated factories. The factories will need maintenance workers for the machines but won’t need the hundreds of assembly workers they once needed. Think how much you already interact with non-humans day to day. When was the last time you interacted with a person to fill up your gas tank? How many times have you used self checkout at the store? When was the last time you talked to a person when calling a support number? All of these things are unskilled work that have now been replaced with machines. 2014 will expand that to many new areas and make it hard for people who don’t have experience, to get experience.

3. Payment reform will begin but won’t be mainstream yet. It seems like everyone I talk to is waiting for mobile payments. It won’t happen with NFC, sorry Android fans, and geofencing is too inaccurate. Apple won’t get into the mobile payment business until 2015 (with iBeacon 2) so this year will be another year of mixed products like Google Wallet, Coin, Bitcoin, and Square. No one will win and consumers who adopt one will lose because the standard will eventually be Apple’s solution. They will release it in 2015 and allow compatible devices (a.k.a. Android) to use it. I don’t want it to be true, but that’s what I think will happen.

That’s all my predictions for 2014, do you have any you’d like to make? Leave a note in the comments if you think I’m right or wrong.

Thanks to David Hepworth for the banner picture.

This all comes from Mike McCune who explained this so nicely in the #Pulp channel of irc.freenode.net

First, I did not realize that all of the products are Red Hat products. They are open source projects, but RH is the biggest contributor in each case.

Second, all of the products are designed to replace/succeed Spacewalk. Spacewalk is the upstream application to RH Satellite which basically lets you inventory and manage your systems. It has features for pushing updates, packaging rpms, and creating kickstart files for provisioning. While Spacewalk still works, new features/development is focusing on the new individual products.

So what does each product do?

Foreman: Provisioning and Configuration Management

Pulp: Patch and Content Management

Candlepin: Subscription and Entitlement Management

Katello: Unified workflow and webUI for content (Pulp) and subscriptions (Candlepin).

Katello does integrate with Foreman, but from what I can tell that is only for patch and content deployments and not provisioning/config management.

I hope this helps anyone else trying to manage Linux servers.

Somehow, this is where I always end up with my laptop.

Computers and Mobile

1. First of all, I really really hope that the Apple mania that has been going on for the past few years will finally die off. I don’t think it will though only because Microsoft seems to have shot themselves in the foot with Windows 8 being nothing that consumers were asking for.

2. Speaking of Windows 8. This year Windows RT will finally become a viable tablet solution. It will only happen though because Microsoft will throw billions of dollars at developers to write software, manufacturers to make hardware, and advertising. There will be no real compelling reason to buy Windows RT over another tablet because Microsoft still won’t figure out how to make a compelling ecosystem. They also will come out with a new version of the tablet OS that will run on smaller screen devices which will allow hardware to drop to the sub $500 range. Of course, the smaller tablets won’t do anything that you really want because Microsoft will artificially limit their capabilities so you’ll buy a more expensive tablet.

3. Smartphone hardware will start to level out this year and the spec race will turn into an ecosystem/software capabilities race. 3rd party manufacturers (HTC especially) will realize their limitations of not being a 1st party manufacturer. Apple, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft will all have their own hardware that can and will do things 3rd parties fail at. Because 3rd parties won’t have the benefit of making money from a robust ecosystem, they will either die or be absorbed into the main players.

4. Google will continue merging Android and Chrome OS but their focus this year will be on making hardware. Making and selling their own phone, tablet, media streamer, Google TV, DVR, router, Android at home, Google glass, and laptop will be too enticing for them. It will also help them sell more ads and know what your are doing 24/7.

5. Google glass is going to be a huge nerd success while the general public will just think WTF. But then, another company (not Apple or Microsoft) will come out with a less obtrusive wearable computer (probably a watch or clothing) and everyone will think it’s amazing! Apple’s and Microsoft’s wearable computers won’t come out till 2014-2015.

Software and Web

1. Startups will fail left and right. It will become a crashing reality for everyone trying to make it as a startup. There will be very few that are purchased by big name companies and the rest will fail. This will cause a slow down in web innovation as fewer people are willing to take a risk and lose everything.

2. Ecosystems will become more segregated and users will have to choose their alliance. Companies are finally realizing what Apple knew years ago. Lock-in not only generates sustainable money, but it also makes it hard for users to leave. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google will continue to try to lock users into an ecosystem that is not only complete (music, movies, TV, OS) but also doesn’t work well with others.

3. Facebook will also expand their ecosystem but their efforts to make money through Facebook specific promotions (gifts, perks, etc.) will ultimately drive users away from the service. Not that they will care if a million users leave the service, but there will be some out cry for people to stop using it.

4. A new company will offer a non-tablet data only (LTE) mobile device with no voice calling. No carrier will allow it on their network because they won’t make money off of it and the new company will go under. Then in 2014 Apple will have an LTE iPod touch and everyone will say “Why didn’t anyone do this before?”

Video Games

1. Indie consoles everywhere! The Kickstarter fad is going to generate a lot of small consoles that will plug into your TV that will use your phone as a controller (via Bluetooth) and they will all kinda suck. They will all run Android or Linux and none of them will have compatible app stores. They will be super cheap (~$100) but won’t catch on because there will be so many terrible knock-offs that no single console can be the winner.

2. Steambox will be the best new console! Although Steam Valve isn’t really new to the video game world, their console will be a huge hit. It will be announced at E3 and be available by Christmas. It also will cost less than a PS4 and probably the same as a Xbox 720. It will run Linux customized Ubuntu, have a limited number of games available, and have a vibrant hacking community. Ultimately the console will be better for Linux than it will be for Valve.

3. PS4 and Xbox 720 will both come out this year. Am I the only one who is over big name consoles? Until the consoles have portability or virtual reality I think I’ll stick to casual gaming on my phone and computer.

Other

1. It’s no secret that movie theaters are struggling to keep attendance. This year I suspect they will start to get creative and try to offer things that people can’t get at home. Two years ago it was 3D, this past year it was IMAX and 48 fps, in the 1920s-1930s it was widescreen video. Next year I suspect they will have some new gimmick that won’t enhance the viewing experience. Arguably not everything movie theaters come up with is a gimmick, but I have a feeling whatever they come up with next will be.

2. Likewise there will be more of a push to bring theater release movies to people’s homes. They will be outlandishly expensive but at least it will be something possible. In the next 5-10 years this will cause most movie theaters to go the way of the video arcade.

3. Self-driving cars will be a consumer reality. For the states that have approved laws, car manufacturers (not just Google) will begin testing self-driving cars. The won’t be available to the public until 2014 but if you live in one of the few states that allow it you may see them on the road.

4. The maker revolution will continue to grow. People making their own stuff and figuring out how things work has been driving a lot of innovation and next year it will only grow stronger as 3D printers become more accessible and information sharing grows. I suspect there will be a ~$250 3D printer that comes out and any company that encourages hardware modifications will be a consumer success even if most people don’t make any modifications at all.

5. Someone will succeed where Boxee failed this year with an unlimited DVR. I have a feeling it will be Amazon. They will offer a set top box that is capable of watching live TV and they also will make “recordings” available through prime instant video for prime subscribers. They will be competing mostly with Hulu but they will make the STB so cheap that it will actually catch on.

Change touchpad delay after typing This has been super annoying because the default delay for the touchpad is 2 seconds! Here’s how to set it to whatever delay you want.
First, turn off the “disable touchpad when typing setting” in your system settings and then open a terminal and enter the following command.

syndaemon -d -K -i 0.3s

Change 0.3s to whatever you want the delay to be. For more info just run man syndaemon.

Install guake and other terminal shortcuts

Here are some gnome-shell extensions I found useful
Alternate Alt+Tab to cycle all windows

Search SSH connections

Alternate system menu (show shutdown option)

Removable drive menu

Maximus clone to remove boarders on full screen programs

Battery remaining indecator

Impatience to speed up animations

Helpful Keybindings

What are your favorite Gnome 3 tweaks? Leave them in the comments.

Computers and Mobile

1. The market will finally start to have tablet fatigue and the clear winners will be Apple’s iPad, Amazon’s Kindle, and Microsoft tablets. Android will still do well but no single company (besides Amazon) will be able to market and push a tablet like the tech giants. And cheap tablets will, in the end, have more market share than expensive ones. Which is also why Apple will probably come out with a cheaper tablet ($350-$400) to compete.
2. Ultrabooks are going to be everywhere this year. They will try to compete with tablets and the MacBook Air but will only gain traction when they drop to $500 or less. A lot of users won’t even care though because they can do most of their work on a $250 tablet.
3. Google will merge Android and Chrome OS in an attempt to compete with what Microsoft comes out with in Windows 8. It will work similarly to how Motorola’s splashtop works now, but accessories will be more universal and the lapdock OS will work better.
4. Apple’s iPhone 5 will set new records for sales, Android will remain in the lead (because of the volume of devices), Windows Phone 7 will eat away at iPhone market because of Windows users who are fed up with Apple’s ecosystem, and RIM/webOS/etc. will all be forgotten by the main stream.
5. Google will also come out with a dumb phone version of Android for developing countries, and non-smartphones. These phones will typically not have touch screens but will be able to run some Android apps.

Software and Web

1. Windows 8 will have versatile tablets and will serve multiple purposes as tablets/notebooks/desktops. Businesses will buy them by the boatload in an attempt to allow users to stay mobile and save some money. The tablets won’t be as functional as notebooks but will be the cool thing for at least another year. In order to use all of Windows 8′s cloud featuers you will have to start using Microsoft’s server backend which will sway even more users towards Apple computers. Consumers won’t really care about this functionality and there will be a small market for accessories and docks because the interfaces will not be universal like they will be for Android/Chrome OS.
2. Desktop applications will take a hit in sales as more users realize they can do what they need with web apps. Google Docs and Office Live will start to gain steam with the general public, but I think another app entirely will become the winner. Probably something that integrates with Facebook. This will also help propel Google even further with Chrome OS.
3. Streaming music will hit main stream and people will finally stop buying CDs. Spotify will probably be the winner because of it’s Facebook integration. We will also see other companies start their own music streaming services (Verizon, Comcast, etc.) and they will all be terrible.
4. Streaming video will still struggle throughout the year because content providers will not lower the prices for digital downloads and streaming. Netflix will have some major competition this year and will continue to lose market as other competition gets more content, and has cheaper prices.
5. Social network exhaustion will set in for many as options will continue to expand. By the end of 2012 Facebook will still be the clear winner in social but many users will just be worn out on trying to keep up with all of their online friends.
6. Voice control is going to have a huge push because of devices that don’t have keyboards. Siri will lead the way thanks to hacks, but Microsoft and Google will both have answers in 2012. Neither will be as consistant on devices because they cannot control the entire ecosystem. Google and Microsoft will try to be more open with their voice control and will start to persuade users off of Siri, but Apple will allow 3rd party plugins and accessories which will keep a lot of the voice control usefulness on their side.

Video Games

1. Mobile gaming will die. The Vita and DS are doomed due to the fact that the consoles and games cost so much. People will keep using their phones, music players, and tablets as casual gaming consoles and won’t even bother to buy the more expensive consoles. Micro payments will be huge in 2012.
2. Nintendo will struggle to find a new market. Their Wii U will be mostly unsuccessful in the US because of its expensive accessories and the fact that there will be so much other competition in the casual gaming space with cheaper and more versatile devices.
3. Sony won’t have a clue what to do with the PS3 and how to integrate their services together in a fashion that is useful for people. This will cause more people to either move to the Xbox 360 or other casual gaming devices.
4. Microsoft will announce (Q2) and come out with a new console (Q4) which will finally have diskless games. Everything will be purchased and streamed from Xbox Live “the cloud” with an optional Blu-ray attachment to keep prices down.

Other

1. 3D TVs will still be pushed in retail but won’t have any compelling content. More TV manufacturers will begin to look for alternative content uses for 3D such as video gaming dual view and some things never seen before
2. Google TV and Apple TV will become casual video game consoles. Since Google and Apple don’t have any unique content, they will try to branch out into video games and apps. Apple will integrate their Apple TV with their iDevices, but Google will be too fragmented to do the same. Instead they will rely on accessories and controllers you buy in addition to the new Google TVs. Google will continue to allow manufacturers to embed Google TV software into their TVs and Apple will continue to keep things in house and come out with a better user experience. Apple will begin to build Apple TV functionality into their iMacs and displays and will make larger (32″-42″) displays that will function as TVs for some.

Let me know if you think I’m right, wrong, or crazy in the comments.

Depending on who you ask, Android is winning the smartphone market. The problem is Android is such a fragmented piece of crap that no phone has anywhere near the same market share as the iPhone. Counting Android by including every phone in existence is like counting Honda’s market share by counting cars, quads, generators, and blenders in the same category. The reason Android is “winning” is because they provide a free platform that any manufacture can take, modify, and put on any hardware they deem fit. This provides a ton of freedom for manufactures and carriers to make money by differentiating their software/hardware and attempt to make some sort of brand loyalty. Because of this freedom, 60% of all smartphones available on the four major U.S. carriers are Android devices. With ICS, Google just lopt off the head of their own business model.

Software

With Android 4.0, Google is attempting to unify the software platforms to allow customers to get the latest and greatest version no matter what device they have. Devices not receiving updates has been a sore spot for Android for years and Google is trying to remedy that. Google plan is to allow users to uninstall anything that ships with their devices. The problem is, manufacturers rely on widgets and skins that give them brand (dis-)loyalty. This is one of the key ways that a manufacturer can set their version of Android apart from someone else’s. If users have the ability to uninstall that skinning, manufacturers have no real purpose to develop any special software unless they go all out and remove that functionality like the Kindle Fire.

Carriers also rely on putting bloatware in phones for 3 reasons:

1. It allows customers to easily buy services from the carrier
2. It differentiates services between carriers (e.g. NFL mobile)
3. It gives carriers kick-backs by including games/apps when users buy the full version

If users can uninstall the bloatware, manufacturers won’t have a reason to spend money to develop and pre-install these apps.

The lack of software differentiation is very similar to Windows Phone 7 where carriers are not able to skin the operating system, and users can uninstall any 3rd party software, even bloatware.

Hardware

Hardware differentiation has been Android’s real bread and butter. You can have devices as simplistic as the Nexus S and crazy as the Echo. Hardware fragmentation has been yet another layer of difficulty for customers to get upgrades. Right now (< Android 3.0) software upgrades have to be written on a phone by phone basis by the manufacturer and approved by the carrier (except Nexus devices). If the carrier doesn’t want your phone to be upgraded, because they’d rather you buy a different, more-better phone, you’re SOL. It is then up to the hacking community to port newer versions of Android to your device, and you had better hope that the manufacturer didn’t lock your bootloader and you bought a popular phone otherwise you are, once again, SOL.

With ICS, it “theoretically” will work on a lot of the newer Android devices, but you still have to play the wait-and-see game if you will ever get that update. Waiting for Android updates is like watching paint dry for the 21st century. Except sometimes, the paint never dries.

Google is once again trying to remedy the situation by creating standards for new ICS devices. With on screen buttons, super high resolution screens, fast processors, and GPUs my 2005 desktop would be jealous of. Only problem is, with hardware standards, Google limits manufacturers ability to differentiate (i.e. fragment) which means all the new Android devices will be similar, if not identical like Windows Phone 7.

If carriers cannot differentiate on software or hardware, why would they pick Android at all? There’s no brand loyalty, less 3rd party app money, and no unique hardware features. All there will be is jobless developers (those that develop HTC Sense for example), up to date phones, and happy customers. That sounds great, until you realize that Microsoft did this exact same thing a year ago with Windows Phone 7 and all it has got them is 5 identical phones, no brand loyalty, terrible sales, and slightly happier customers. I am glad Google killed Android, but I think they have a long way to go before they figure out the best method to resurrect Android into a world conquering force. After all, there can only be one Jesus Phone; everything else is just a zombie.

Advertising

In the U.S., advertising is what makes users buy products and typically there is only one source for advertising in mobile. That source is the carriers, and carriers only advertise when they have an exclusive (or at minimum a customized device). The only exception to this is the iPhone in which Apple handles all of the advertising directly. But Apple is an advertising giant that has no equal in the tech world.
HP has proven that they don’t know how to advertise webOS and if their current trends continue with devices, they want to stay away from carrier exclusives as much as possible. Which means carriers won’t take over the advertising for them which means people won’t buy devices.
The only way to fix this is to either make the devices carrier exclusive, allow carriers to heavily customize devices, or figure out how to advertise webOS on your own. I would recommend doing all of the advertising in house but HP needs to figure out a better way to advertise than what they have done in the past.

Hardware

The Pre, Pre Plus, Pre 2, Pre 3, and Veer have all been pretty much identical phones with slightly different specs and in different sizes. The problem with this is the portrait slider is the least common from factor that people buy. The flip phone, candy bar, and slate are by far more common form factors and coming in close 4th is the landscape slider. Way under that is the portrait slider, and by limiting themselves to this form factor they limit themselves to a very small segment of the market. I know they will probably eventually make a slate device but that is where the second half of the hardware problem comes into play.
Not only has HP locked themselves into a certain form factor but they have never had innovative hardware specs or options available on their phones. They have always been trailing the market in hardware specs which makes the phone stable but not groundbreaking for features. Inductive charging and the yet-to-be released tap to share are two areas where HP has tried to be innovative. It is unfortunate that they have been behind on gyroscopes, qHD/retina displays, NFC, front facing cameras, 4G, HDMI video, etc. This lack of innovation keeps people from being excited about their products and keeps HP from being a leader in the mobile space.
To fix there hardware problems they need to take more chances in hardware specs and features, and if they are going to stick with the portrait slider they need to perfect it. After having played with every portrait slider they have made, they still have a long way to go before they reach the usability/functionality where they want to be. BlackBerry hardware has always been better and even the Dells Venue Pro does a better job at making a portrait keyboard usable.

User Experience

When webOS was first announced their user interface blew everything else out of the water. It’s still a slick way to manage apps and to move around the device but other manufacturers have discovered this already and are adjusting accordingly. As you can see in the screenshots, Windows Phone 7, BlackBerry QNX, and even Apple iOS are all going to have some sort of card layout to switch apps in the near future. Even Android has software that will let you emulate this functionality to a degree.
So if app switching is going to be essentially the same between every mobile OS the only other innovation is how to use the screen when not in applications. There are essentially only two methods to handle the screen when not in an application. Either clutter the screen with quick information via tiles or widgets, or keep the screen relatively static with app launchers a la iOS, webOS, and BlackBerry OS. WebOS is sticking with the static launcher approach but they have one big thing to get over if they are going to stay in that space, apps.
To fix this they need to be more innovative in their software with cloud computing, allowing 3rd party plugins, and an ecosystem that Android and BlackBerry can’t touch. Apple has an ecosystem that doesn’t let users escape and HP needs something similar if they want to make a consistent user experience. But in order to do that they are going to need to branch out into music and video services or seamlessly allow 3rd parties to tie into those services on the device.

Apps

WebOS has always been behind on apps. It is embarrassing that Windows Phone 7 launched almost two years after webOS and they already have more apps than webOS and they even have more big name apps than webOS which is what the general public cares about. Sure webOS got some apps before Android but now they are forgotten about and are typically the last to get an app behind iOS, Android, BlackBerry, and WP7 if they even get an app at all.
Being behind in apps is not only a problem for users but HP isn’t able to create a consistent app development experience for developers. First was the SDK but that didn’t have enough access to the hardware and was limited in customizability. Next was the PDK which was great for porting objective C apps from iOS and it solved some problems of hardware access. The PDK never seemed to be fully functional and developers who wanted to learn objective C might as well just develop for iOS and leave it at that. The return on investment for webOS porting was not worth developers time because there was nothing a webOS phone could do that an iPhone couldn’t (see hardware) and there weren’t enough users to make it profitable. Now HP is pushing Enyo. Enyo is a mashup of the SDK and PDK which has more hardware access but is easier to develop than objective C. This is great but it is another language that now would require developers to learn a language just for one mobile platform.
The way HP can fix this is to stick with a single development platform and to pay a lot of money to get big businesses to invest in webOS apps. They need to go after the big names like Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, Google, twitter, facebook, etc. They also need to get more 3rd parties building plugins for their music player, pictures, contacts, just type, etc.

Wrap Up

I know webOS has some features that no other mobile OS has and there are rumored developments like continuous computing that would be amazing for mobile devices. But until HP actually delivers on these rumors they are still just cloud dreams and by the time they are out someone else will have already implemented or announced a similar feature.
What do you guys think? Will webOS ever catch up in the mobile space? Putting webOS on HP laptops is a completely different story but unless some things change I don’t see webOS ever being a major player in the mobile space.