A new year is here so I’ll take another swing at how technology will change in the year 2014. This will be my sixth year doing a predictions post. If you haven’t read them before you should check out my 2013 post and then take a look at some of the older predictions I’ve made. I especially like my prediction from 2009 that Google would make a social network and twitter would be the next big social network. Anyway, here are some crazy, and not so crazy, predictions for 2014.

Computers and Mobile

1. Converging devices will finally become main stream. I know there have been devices in the past that attempted to solve the “one device to rule them all” problem. (e.g. Motorola Atrix, Asus Padfone) They have never taken off for three reasons, 1) they weren’t inter-operable, 2) they were slow, 3) they were expensive. I also know that many people already have “one device” because they have a keyboard dock on their iPad. In reality though, they just bought the cheapest Apple laptop they could. I think there will be a big name company (it won’t be Apple, see below) to offer their phones/tablets to be a true laptop/desktop replacement via a docking station that changes the user interface depending on what the device is plugged into. People have been trying to accomplish some of this functionality for a while with things like Ubuntu for Android, but the solution needs to come by default with the device for it to really take off.

2. Speaking of converged devices, Apple will have a larger iPad (12″) that can be used like a desktop and is designed for professionals. It will be more powerful than the existing iPad and will be Apple’s attempt at a “cheap” laptop. It won’t be as successful as the existing iPad though because for the general consumer they already have this functionality in their existing iPad/keyboard combo. It also won’t change the user interface when docked and just use super high resolution apps.

3. The year of the wearable computer! 2013 saw a lot of buzz in the wearable computer arena with the Pebble, Fitbit, Jawbone up, Samsung gear, etc. This year it will really take off because Google (via Motorola) and Apple will get behind the movement with wearables. I think most of the main stream adoption won’t happen until fall though because Google won’t announce anything until summer and Apple will wait for Fall. CES will be littered with crappy wearables coming out in early summer to beat the big name products.

4. Blackberry will die. I have predicted this with friends but realized I never put it on one of these predictions. Blackberry will transition to a completely software company and will fail to generate revenue. They will be gone by Q2 of 2015.

5. HP and Dell will get back into the mobile business. They probably realize by now they have to sell mobile devices if they want to keep revenue up. My guess is HP will make Android devices (they’ll suck) and Dell will make Windows Phone devices (they’ll suck even more). Samsung will spin off their own version of Android and LG will release a tablet with webOS.

Software and Web

1. Windows has been in a downward spiral since Windows 8 was announced (and even before Windows Phone 7 Series Phone). This year Windows will lose significant market share to OS X, Chrome OS, iOS, and Android. Microsoft has been scrambling to make Windows 8 better for consumers by adding features they removed. Although I don’t think consumers care about spying and the NSA, I do think that businesses care and this year businesses will actually start adopting the alternate operating systems for their employees. I think in many cases Windows will still be the work horse of the enterprise, via VDI, but Microsoft will be scrambling to find new markets in hardware, software subscriptions, and giving away stuff for free (and charging for premium features). They will also shift to a consumer company.

2. Web standardization is going to get a boost in 2014 for three reasons. 1) Security can be better when there is a good standard 2) user experience is better when everyone is on a level playing field 3) the least common denominator has been, and will continue to be, mobile. If companies want to reach the widest audience, they will have to design for slow devices, with small screens, and HTML browsers.

3. There will be a new great website in 2014. This one is a little bit obvious but I think the thing that is going to be neat is the fact that it will do something we haven’t dreamed of yet. In years past there have been some sites that changed how people interact with the internet IFTTT/Pinterest (2010), imgur (2009), and reddit (2005) are all examples of this and I think the pace of innovation is getting faster. This year a new site, one that was probably started in 2013, will become a huge success and will eventually get bought by Google or Facebook. Oh and one of the previously mentioned sites will be purchase by a big name company.

4. NSA backlash will cause big US companies to lose market share in other countries. Now that most of the spying secrets are out, many foreign companies will be looking for alternatives to the software they have been relying on for so long. Linux and open source software will be the big winner in most cases and Microsoft will be hurt the most. More and more countries will put efforts forth to build their own operating systems by customizing distributions of Linux to suit their needs.

Games

1. Virtual reality will be awesome, and niche. I wish I could say it would take off and I’m very excited for the Oculus Rift, but I don’t see many people outside of hardcore, single player gamers adopting it. Real adoption will happen in 2015-2016 when it’s wireless, cheaper, and works with consoles. I look forward to the future of virtual reality not only for games though, I also think it’s a great way to watch a movie assuming the headphones will support surround sound.

2. I predicted in 2012 that Nintendo would struggle and I still think that’ll be the case. This year I also think that Sony will have a hard time shifting from a hardware provider to a software and services company. In order to make the PS4 great and lasting they need to provide solid services and I don’t think they have the development abilities to do so.

3. Apple will get into games in a big way with a new Apple TV, first party gaming hardware, and better game center integration. Apples efforts will make everything Google has done look completely worthless, if it hasn’t already, and Google will scramble to create a better gaming platform. In reality though, Google doesn’t care and will just leave the gaming to third parties which will all suck.

Other

1. Self driving cars will hit a wall. While this is mostly figuratively speaking, although I do predict there will be the first accident involving a self driving car while the car is driving this year, I think the real “wall” autonomous vehicles will hit is legislation. Even though some states have already approved the use of the cars, there is still a long way to go before someone can buy one. There are other hurdles like re-writing laws, adapting insurance, and building better/smarter streets. Google will probably try to build their own cars but I think China will make a big move to make their own self driving cars probably by ripping off other companies technology.

2. I think 2014 will make it harder for non-skilled workers to find a job. There will probably be two or three big companies making 99% automated factories. The factories will need maintenance workers for the machines but won’t need the hundreds of assembly workers they once needed. Think how much you already interact with non-humans day to day. When was the last time you interacted with a person to fill up your gas tank? How many times have you used self checkout at the store? When was the last time you talked to a person when calling a support number? All of these things are unskilled work that have now been replaced with machines. 2014 will expand that to many new areas and make it hard for people who don’t have experience, to get experience.

3. Payment reform will begin but won’t be mainstream yet. It seems like everyone I talk to is waiting for mobile payments. It won’t happen with NFC, sorry Android fans, and geofencing is too inaccurate. Apple won’t get into the mobile payment business until 2015 (with iBeacon 2) so this year will be another year of mixed products like Google Wallet, Coin, Bitcoin, and Square. No one will win and consumers who adopt one will lose because the standard will eventually be Apple’s solution. They will release it in 2015 and allow compatible devices (a.k.a. Android) to use it. I don’t want it to be true, but that’s what I think will happen.

That’s all my predictions for 2014, do you have any you’d like to make? Leave a note in the comments if you think I’m right or wrong.

Thanks to David Hepworth for the banner picture.

Disclaimer, I’m not a software developer so I really have no say into how this actually works.

How Version Numbers Should Work

Version numbers are a unique name or number assigned to a specific version of the software. There can be public and internal versions but they typically increment from 0 -> ∞ or a – z. Often times there are also “code names” for releases which sometimes become more popular than the actual names themselves (see Ubuntu releases).
Incrementing version numbers usually are the form major.minor.fixes (e.g. 1.3.0 is major release 1, minor release 3, with 0 bugfixes). Incrementing versions can also have letters to help designate (pre)release state (e.g. 2.0.0b2 is the second beta release for version 2.0). Some systems also use odd numbers for development and even numbers for production (see the Linux kernel).

How Version Numbers Actually Work

In many cases the above systems work. But lately I am not sure version numbers make sense, nor are they used in a way that helps customers. Software versions in a lot of situations are either a reference to the year the software was released (or supposed to be released) or are just a pissing contest to make sure the number is bigger than the competition (see Firefox. Version .01 -> 3.6 in 10 years; version 3.6 -> 23.0 in 17 months).

Oh and don’t forget the global assumption that anything <1 is complete crap so you had better change your version number from 0.25 to 2.6 (thanks Puppet).

How Version Numbers Could Work

So what if there was another way. What if, for the sake of the end user, current software was always just version 0 (naught). It doesn’t matter how many iterations or releases you’re on, the release you are shipping is 0. In other words, the current version of Firefox would always just be called Firefox.

If this were the case, your support model will be to support versions -2 through 0. As new releases come out the older versions are known as negative releases or, depending on your release cycle, yearly releases. The version that is one major release old (and came out six months ago as of writing this) would be Firefox -1 (2013.02). People can easily look at this number an know when their software came out and also how current they are with the shipping version. Bugfix and minor releases would be handled in a similar manner by decrementing the version number of out of date software rather than incrementing newer software. Once you are up to date you are back to 0.

Likewise, beta versions would be 1 and alpha would be 2. I’m not sure there would be many public versions above 1 and 2 but maybe development would be 3-4 and not ever released to the public.

When I thought about it more, this is the way websites work. Not because it was designed this way, but because customers don’t have a choice in using an old version. They are always on the version that is available. Similarly, other things in the physical world (such as cars) often work this way. They sometimes append the year for identification purposes, and because they release most cars yearly, but a Corolla is always a Corolla. It is only made old by the fact that a new version has come out. Luckily for the customer, they don’t have to know what mark  (a.k.a. version) the car is on, they just have to know they want the current one (FYI the Corolla is currently on MKXI or version E160).

I know this idea doesn’t work well with version control, tags, blah, blah, blah. But it seems like something that works in the physical world, is highly consumer friendly, and because it gets version numbers out of the way, could be a very good thing.

• Hold volume down (while phone is on) = Compose new tweet
• Hold volume up (while phone is on) = Show contact favorites
• Triple press home button (while phone is on) = Open camera
• Triple press home button (while phone is locked) = Play/Pause

Here’s a quick video I found that shows some of the settings and how it works.

Browser Changer

Allows you to change the default web browser in iOS (Mine is set to Google Chrome)

Chromizer

Adds some gestures to Google Chrome

Data Monitor

Lets me see how much data I have used per day and per month on wifi and 3g connections.

F.lux

Changes the screen hue based on the time of day. You specify what type of lights you use and it automatically adjusts.

Five Icon Dock

This one does exactly what you’d think

FolderEnhancer

Puts folders on steroids and really customizable. This was the 2nd jailbreak app I bought.

iFile

Just a file browser, but if you pay for it you also get Dropbox syncing etc.

NCSettings

Like Android toggles in the notification center.

OneByOne Contacts

Lets you swipe to delete contacts like webOS used to.

PasswordPilot

Automatically enters your App Store password

PdaNet

PdaNet has been around forever and the only way you can get it on your iOS device is with a jailbreak. It’s a one time $15 fee but well worth it if you tether a lot and don’t want to pay the $15/mo charge to the carrier.

Pull To Dismiss

Gets rid of the keyboard when you don’t want it. Easier to explain in the video.

ShowCase

I just found this one and it fixes a HUGE annoyance I’ve always had with iOS. Check out the video.

Silent Rington

Give you a ringtone that doesn’t make any noise (just vibrates). It’s great for an alarm when you don’t want to wake anyone else up.

Siri Toggles

Turn on/off wifi, bluetooth, etc. with Siri. This functionality is built into iOS 6, but I’ve had it in iOS 5 for quite a while.

SmallBanners

Makes the notification banner smaller.

SMS GV Extension

This seamlessly integrates Google Voice into the default SMS app. Here’s the website for more information.

SwipeSelection

Adds gestures to the iOS keyboard that I wish every keyboard had.

SwitcherMod

Allows you to customize some features of the app switcher. I use this to always show the close X on apps.

Switchy

Makes the app switcher 2 rows high and adds other customizations

WiCarrier

Show’s your currently connected wifi network in the status bar. More info at iDownloadBlog

xCon

Hides your jailbreak status for some apps.

First of all, the Samsung is not that cheap, $500 is the price of a low end notebook and a high end netbook. It is also right in the sweet spot for tablets and about 1/2 the price of any notebook I’d consider good. So does a $500 web browser live up to it’s expectations? No. Here’s a quick breakdown.

Good:

• Portability – Small and light, but not as small or light as a netbook or tablet.
• User management – There is nothing to manage here, that’s a good thing.
• OS management/updates – Automatic, until there are problems. Trust me, someday, there will be problems.
• Boot/resume time – Good, but only on par with a SSD equipped netbook and less than a tablet.
• Keyboard spacing – Better spacing than a netbook and no need to muck around with onscreen keys. Oh and Dvorak support was a good surprise.

Bad:

• Build quality – Worse than low end netbooks I have used.
• Touchpad – Multitouch scrolling wasn’t as bad as the CR-48, but clicking was a nightmare.
• Missing keys (home, end, f*, delete, super) – With such a terrible touchpad I turned to the keyboard to make up for shortcomings, too bad a lot of the hotkeys I rely on for writing were absent
• missing tools (citrix/rdp, screenshots, storage) – It came down to the fact that I could not do my job with this computer, and that’s a deal breaker.
• Price – As stated above, when the price is around the same as a low end notebook running Windows, something is wrong.
• Display auto brightness – I had multiple occasions when the screen ignored all brightness level I set and did its own thing. Very rough on the eyes.
• Video out/adapter – No extended monitor means, why put video out on the thing at all?

As you can probably see, I wasn’t a fan. I used the Chromebook for 2 solid days before I gave up and went back to my HP 2560p which costs twice as much but does 1,000,000 more things (even run Chrome OS). Battery life on the Chromebook was about the same as my notebook and so was resume/sleep times which are typically two of the selling points of the Chromebook.
Because the Chromebook is not a serious work notebook, if someone asked me what they should get for casual internet browsing and games for ~$500, I’d recommend a TouchPad. If they said they needed a real keyboard, I’d tell them to get the bluetooth keyboard and touchstone. If they still didn’t want that, I’d recommend a netbook.
The Chromebook only makes sense for businesses doing the monthly rental, and if they have a Citrix environment set up so users could get real work done. As my companies Citrix XenDesktop engineer, I look forward to that day, but for my family and friends, never.

Hardware:

The hardware is almost identical to HP’s old ex475 MediaSmart servers on the outside but the inside now has a Intel Celeron 2.0 Ghz processor with 2 GB of RAM. That is a pretty big upgrade compared to the old AMD 1.8 Sempron with 512 MB RAM. One of the biggest jumps internally for the ex485/ex487 is the jump to a 64-bit processor. While this currently doesn’t matter to much, Microsoft’s next version of Windows Home Server is going to be built off of Windows Server 2008 R8 which is 64-bit only. This means that the ex480 family can technically run the future software without another hardware upgrade.
Externally, the hardware is great. Four hard drive bays right where they should be, three USB in the back, eSATA, and gigabit ethernet. At first I didn’t even think I would use the front USB port but I find that I use it quite often when copying large amounts of information to the server.
I can’t say much about the hardware except for the fact that it is wonderful. I haven’t had any hardware problems and the device is small enough and quiet enough to leave next to my laser printer and no one knows it’s there. The device is fairly quite, but one of my hard drives is a bit old and I think makes more noise than necessary. I would say I have never heard the device over the TV being on, but when the room is completely silent, the hard drive noise is enough to not let me fall asleep.

Pros:
Small
Relatively Quiet
Lots of storage options (4 hard drive bays, 4 USB ports, 1 eSATA port)
Plenty of speed

Cons:
The bays were a little awkard at first
eSATA not replicating (no daisy chaining eSATA devices like you could with the old systems)

Software:

First of all, the NAS solutions I have used in the past have always been DIY solutions. Even the Buffalo Linkstation I hacked so that I could load a full Debian Linux install on it for more flexibility. Other than that I have used Ubuntu Server, FreeNAS, Windows, and a few other solutions, and have looked at solutions like unRAID, Linksys, and QNap. So far every single system I have used just seemed pieced together and not a finished product. That was until I used Windows Home Server.
Windows Home Server is built off of Windows Server 2003 and this is a very good thing. Windows Home Server is available as a retail purchase or you can buy it pre-installed on a lot of NAS systems out there. The retail version allows you to build your NAS from the ground up. Everything from the hardware, OS, and add-on software can be customized which is great for people that want a bit more control but don’t want all the headaches of some Linux incompatibilities. Plus if you buy the software retail you can start with cheap hardware and then work your way up as you get small amounts of budget instead of plopping down ~$600 for a all-in-on retail solution.
The key feature of WHS is the folder duplication. It allows you to use any hard drive and adds all the storage to a pool of available space, similar to the Drobo. The reason this kicks the Drobo’s ass is if your WHS machine dies, all of the drives are formatted with NTFS so you can just pull the hard drives and get the information off of a new computer. With the Drobo, if your Drobo dies, so does everything stored on it cause it uses a proprietary format. This type of storage is really the way things are moving because people are finally realizing that RAID is not a backup solution. RAID is for speed and eliminates down time, period.
The software does what you would expect and the configuration is handled in a stupidly simple Home Server Console. I actually dislike the console just because I feel like it makes things too easy. As much as you can do with the console some things just aren’t there yet (such as copying from a local USB drive to a share). But because the system runs Windows Server you can just RDP to the machine and copy things that way. I hope small tasks like this are fixed in future releases and it would also be nice to see some sort of official add-on store/repository or at least a official Microsoft site for them. It gets annoying trying to rummage the internet to find the best add-ons.
Add-ons is one area that I find very feature lacking and yet is something that should be so much better. Where is the add-on to let me ping my DNSomatic account? How about the one that integrates with my webcam for security viewing/recording when there is movement? Home automation? Game server? Heck even some more advanced features like Active Directory would be nice for the power users, and people with more than just 1 computer in the house.
I haven’t tried printer sharing through the system but the good news is, if it works in Windows Server 2003 it will work in Windows Home Server. And that is the main thing that separates Windows Home Server from all of the other DIY and Linux systems I have used. Windows Home Server takes a very successfully platform and strips it down to just what you need, and then they allow anyone to make minor additions to the system using add-ons. The software is the same across all platforms that use Windows Home Server. It doesn’t matter if you build it yourself or buy it from HP, Acer, or Shuttle.
This kind of flexibility makes me very excited for the next release which is based off of Windows Server 2008 R2 (a.k.a. Windows 7). If the next version of Windows Home Server lives up to 1/2 of it’s expectations it will still be a killer system that will be worth every penny for a upgrade.
Pros:
DIY availability
Add-ons are compatible with any WHS system
Easy to use
Remote desktop
The first NAS I don’t manage on a weekly basis
Cons:
Console can sometimes be too simple
Key Add-ins are missing
Network warnings for stupid things (firewall turned off, updates needed, etc.)

The HP MediaSmart Server came with one other thing that you won’t get on any other WHS system. Custom HP software built just for the MediaSmart servers. When I first bought the MSS the software wasn’t very feature rich for my needs. I don’t use iTunes so I don’t need the iTunes music server, I don’t have a Mac so I don’t need Time Machine backups, I don’t use snapfish, flickr, facebook, or Picasa for my pictures so I don’t need the Photo Publisher, and I don’t want the server collecting all of my media and putting it wherever it wanted to so I don’t want the HP Media Collector. The other features the MSS includes that retail installs of WHS don’t get are Twonky Media Server, Remote Access, HP Media Streamer, and HP Video Converter. Here is why they all suck.
Twonky Media Server is basically why I bought a MSS and didn’t build my own. You can easily buy Twonky from their site for $30 and install it and you are probably better off. HP by default locks me out of a lot of the advanced settings (but there is a way around it), but at the time I thought I might actually use some of the other features HP includes. Also to compare, I had Twonky on my Linkstation Live and it worked wonderfully with my PS3. With the MSS, Twonkey reports that I don’t have any music, photos, or videos stored on my MSS.
Remote Access lets you set up a website so you can access your WHS from anywhere in the world. While this is just fine (and Microsoft allows for free sites using *.homeserver.com), HP wants you to pay for a TZO site at $30 $10 a year. Not terrible but when free sites like www.dyndns.org and a million others let you do this for free it just seems like a waste. As a matter of fact before the HP 2.5 upgrade there was no option to have a *.homeserver.com site so you had to pay to get access to your server. Unless of course you set that portion up on your router.
HP Photo Viewer is probably the best software out of all the crappy software HP includes in the MSS. Of course first you have to publish all of your pictures locally to the HP Photo Viewer and make sure you put them in albums manually. Once they are “published” you can password protect them let users order prints download a full album view pictures full screen view the pictures in a small area of your web browser. OK maybe this software does suck. Don’t use it. The only benefit it could possibly have over online sites is you have unlimited storage because it is served locally. But if you need that just buy a domain and set up a gallary2 installation, or pay for flickr, Picasa, etc. At least then you get a off site backup of your pictures at the same time.
So how about the HP Media Streamer and HP Video Converter those at least are worth looking at right? Not for me. The idea is the Video Converter runs in the background and converts your files so that you can share them in the HP Media Streamer and to your iPhone/iPod Touch. The media streamer is supposed to play your music, pictures, and videos to a flash player in your browser wherever you are. The good news is the HP Media Streamer is password protected so at least not just anyone can access your files. The bad news is, ever since I upgraded to the 2.5 version software the HP Media Streamer doesn’t see any of my music or videos. That seems to defeat the purpose. Oh and the video converter converted all of my video files and then seems to have misplaced them because it started to convert all of my video files again, thus overwriting the old video files it just converted. So I just turned it off and forgot the feature was even there. I also have yet to be able to play any music, photos, or video to any of the 3 iPhones I have tested. Every single one either says it cannot connect or there are no files to be played.
Pros:
A good feature list to compare to other WHS’s on the market
Cons:
Nothing works the way it is advertised

Closing

My next WHS box will probably be a home built system with 8-10 hard drive bays. In the long run that will probably be cheaper and I can make sure only the software I need is installed. I still do like the MSS and if you don’t want to mess with it (or have Apple products) it really is the way to go for mass storage on your network.

*update* OK I thought I disabled them. I disabled the “feature” in the plugin again. I will have to check it later in the week to make sure it is still disabled.

And here is part 2

The basic idea for the website is to be a software recycler. The site allows you to donate your old/unused software either digitally or by mailing in the CD/DVD, and it also allows you to download software you are looking for completely free (donations accepted). With so many software companies just allowing you to download installers and emailing you a key this would be fairly easy to implement.

The site’s main goal would be to support free and open source replacements like Linux, Open Office, and Gimp for common applications, but there would also be the opportunity to get a license key for Windows XP, Microsoft Office, and Photoshop. Most of the funding for this site would come from donations of people downloading software and ads for the open source counterparts. I would imagine this site would mainly be non-profit though simply because of the amount of server storage and bandwidth needed to host this.

Large companies often buy software only to phase it out in two or three years. The software works just fine and for third world countries, non-profit companies, and individuals this could save a lot of money and stop the needless purchase of software if someone is no longer using the key for software they just upgraded. Similar cases would be when companies like Microsoft stop supporting Windows XP. There are going to be countless unused keys for legal versions of XP that I am sure a lot of people would love to have and countries can take advantage of.

The idea of donating your unused license I am sure would have a lot of legal implications, but I think once the software has been purchased it is able to be sold/given to anyone once the initial purchaser is done with it. There would also need to be a verification process when the software is donated. The way I think of it would be to have some sort of VM running a installer to verify its authenticity, but for volume licenses a phone call would probably need to be made to the developer of the software.

I think a website that could allow this service could not only help open source projects but it would also help the world by saving money and getting the word out about free alternatives. Let me know what you do with your old software and what website you think the world could benefit from in the comments.