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2010 Tech Predictions

It was fun doing this last year. So I thought I would have another go at it and see what I come up with.

Computers:
1. Netbooks/sub-12″ laptops will be even bigger than before because they will finally be useful. Atom/ULV processors, Ion/Tegra graphics, and touch enabled devices will make having a 17″ laptop a bad thing. Oh and used/refurbished laptops might play a big role in killing desktops once and for all.
2. Windows Home server will have a big update (based on server 2008 r2) and will include Windows Media Center backend and Zune software so you can plug your tuners directly into your WHS. This will also allow for great integration in Windows Mobile 7 and begin a new wave of extenders. I don’t think it will be out till Q3/Q4 though so extenders won’t make a push until 2011.
3. Someone will finally offer a true alternative to cable TV. It will probably come from Apple/Netflix/Boxee/Hulu/Microsoft and it will still be an expensive monthly charge but it will be possible to disconnect your cable/satellite. I am thinking Microsoft will begin a Zune Pass for TV which will integrate into Windows Media Center when WHS 2 and WM7 come out.
4. Apple will begin talks of their new OS, Microsoft will stay quiet about what they are working (and ride the good wave of Windows 7) on as long as possible, and Linux will be in a transitional phase while KDE and Gnome both get big updates.

Video Games:
1. Nintendo won’t come out with anything new. They are going to milk the Wii and DS as long as they can and plan for the Wii HD announcement in 2011. Microsoft will do the same with the Xbox 360 but they will probably hint that they are making something new before the end of the year.
2. Sony will hopefully focus on finishing their projects (home, media codecs, 3D, etc.) and open up the PS3 to 3rd party programs in 2010. Things like Netflix and Pandora streaming I don’t think are too far fetched and I really hope to see a decent browser come to the console along with Vudu streaming.
3. A new mobile console will come out. Probably in the form of a phone, but I expect a lot from Microsoft with Xbox Live on Windows Mobile 7.

Cell Phones:
1. Verizon will begin its rollout of LTE and Apple will announce a device for Verizon. I have always thought Apple would not make a CDMA device until Verizon starts rolling out LTE and that will happen in 2010. This also means that the device will work on Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile in the US and many GSM carriers around the world once GSM networks start updates. With a device on Verizon Apple will have a huge hold on the mobile market. It won’t go unanswered though.
2. Android will become number 3 in the mobile world. That is no small feat however. Android is currently the bottom in market share, by a lot. They will win in 4 ways, 1. Cheap devices 2. Multiple options 3. Any Carrier 4. The decline of RIM and Windows Mobile. Windows mobile has already been stagnant for the past 5 months and RIM is losing it’s customers. I don’t think RIM is smart enough to announce something big so they will die off but will still hold a good portion of the market share through most of 2010. Oh, and an official Google phone and a crap load of more updates to the OS won’t hurt either.
3. webOS will gain market share thanks to Verizon but will still fail to make the impact that the new Apple device will. Palm’s only benefit will be that they will be on Verizon first because they will support CDMA. I really hope they come out with a new phone, but if anything I think they will only announce a new phone in Q3 but not release anything new.
4. Windows Mobile 7 will have features built in that will make any iPhone user gelous. I am not just talking about cool games, I am talking about ZuneHD player integration, amazing hardware, and media streaming galore. I think they will integrate with the new Windows Home Server/Media Center and will really make seamless media playback better than ever. Not only that but WM7 will be heavily integrated into social networks allowing you to be always connected to your facebook, twitter, email, etc. even more seamless than Android or webOS.
5. Apple Tablet will be huge at first, and then go the way of the Apple TV. Yes the device will be really cool, yes fanboys/blogs/tech sites will long for the chance to gaze upon the amazing apple logo on the back, and yes it will do really cool things with media playback and music streaming. But if even 1/2 of the rumors are true the device is destined to fail. A ~$800, 10″ tablet you carry around to watch videos, surf the web, listen to music, and play games on really just sounds lame unless I was at home sitting on my couch. And in that case I will just use my laptop or get a netbook preferably with Google Chrome for less than 1/2 the price. I feel weird talking about it when it is really only about a month from being announced. But in all honesty, I don’t see how this would be any better than a device you can actually carry in your pocket like say, a Google Phone. Oh and the tablet will have hardware issues in the first generation.

Other:
1. 3D in TV’s will have a big push. There are finally standards to allow for it and sales will be slow at first because there won’t be much content and prices will be ridiculous. Interest will rise when cable providers announce 3D cable TV offerings for launch in 2011.
2. Retail stores will begin to push online sales and start to lose services because consumers are getting smarter, or at least more resourceful. With Amazon having as big of a year as they did, stores like Best Buy, Barns n Noble, and Sears just can’t rely on people coming into their stores as much.
3. The Automotive industry will finally push for a standard in electric/hybrid cars. With so many companies going out of business, automotive makers can’t stay fragmented for long. They will have to agree upon something or they will lose to a up and coming company like Tesla.

Let me know what you think in the comments. Mostly I feel 2010 will be a year of recovery and not innovation. Although necessity is the mother of invention so maybe I am wrong.

MR2 Head Job

On my way home one day I downshifted in my 1987 Toyota MR2 going up a big hill and downshifted a bit too far. I over-revved the engine and the engine died on me. I was able to get the car running but there was obviously something wrong. I did a little bit of troubleshooting the next weekend and found I had lost all compression in my number two cylinder. I didn’t have the time/money/place to fix it so I just let it sit for a couple months while I decided what I was going to do. However, with my DMV renewal quickly approaching I realized I had to do something. Last month I brought the car to a friend of my dad who does some mechanic work on the side. He quickly narrowed the problem down to something wrong with one of the the exhaust valves and I left the car with him to fix it. Of course this meant pulling the head, replacing gaskets, and obviously doing some head work. While he was going to be doing that, I gave him a few other things to look at since I knew the car would be there for at least a couple weeks.
I just got the car back last week, after many trips dropping off parts and getting status updates, and I don’t think the car has ever run this well since I have owned it. I just wanted to share a couple before and after pictures of the head in case anyone else is planning on having head work done on their own cars. In total the head machining cost $210 and included 2 valve replacements, a 3 angle valve job, and decking the head (making sure it is level). Enjoy the pictures, I think I might go for another drive!

Star Wars

These pictures were too good to pass up. I am not a hugh star wars fans but I do like cars. And they defiantly picked some nice cars.
Click for bigger picture


OK, now I am going to bed.

Tesla Roadster

For my birthday this past weekend I treated myself to something I wouldn’t normally do. I went for a test ride in a super car. It is something I have always wanted to do, and now that I am 25 I feel like I should be able to go do it. Lucky for me there is a start-up super car company that happens to have 1 of 3 dealerships about 30 minutes away from my house. So I gave them a call and scheduled a ride in one of their fabulous cars.
I wanted to give a quick review of what I thought about the car. First of all the obvious, this car is gorgeous! It is based off the Lotus Elise and it shows. It is a pretty small car with 100% carbon fiber body panels. For being such a small car it looks fairly heavy sitting on the street, but when the trunk/hood were open I could see all of the unpainted carbon fiber (including the carbon fiber trunk “tub”). All of the carbon fiber really makes this car stand out from just another Solstice/Sky and into the super car category. I asked if it came unpainted but I just got a weird look and was told there probably wouldn’t be a market for that. They were probably right but I still think it would look sweet.
One of the first things I noticed when I got in the car was how hard it is to get in. The side sill was extremely high when compared to the seat, and the seat I sat in was quite uncomfortable. I asked and found out the car I was actually sitting in was only the eighth Tesla Roadster ever made. When I finally got into a production car with swede seats it felt significantly better but I still wouldn’t want to sit in the seat for more than a hundred miles or so. Of course in this car, those hundred miles would go really quick. The side support was also a bit lacking for how fast the car can corner.
Also from just sitting in the car I found a few things very strange. First was the fact that the car uses a traditional key. I know this may not sound strange but even basic cars now use a wireless key and push start buttons. Second was the RPM gauge. Sure the electric engine spins around 13,000 RPM but the current transmission is only one speed. That means the RPM gauge and speedometer mirror each other. Tesla did finally fix the problems with their two speed transmission so maybe this will make the RPM gauge a bit more useful but I still find it a bit strange. Lastly was how small the car was inside. I currently drive a Toyota MR2 so I know what small cars are like, but with a driver sitting next to me I found that I had to lean slightly to the right just to keep rubbing shoulders the whole time.
On the plus side, this car is quick! I have been in some quick cars (the fastest was probably the ’07 Corvette Z06) but now this takes the cake. It was very deceptive how fast we were even going because there is no engine noise, but I could feel my gut collapsing on my spine whenever the “gas” pedal was pushed. Not only was it fast in a straight line, everything in the car is so low that it moved around a corner just as fast as it did going straight. I think my lower intestine tied into a knot going around a freeway offramp. Another big plus was how simple the interior is. There is no glove box (more of a shelf), no center console, and only about 6 buttons and 2 knobs including the AC, heater, and radio. Most things were controlled with a touchscreen on the lower left side. I asked what you could do with the touch screen and besides the boring charge level and air pressure the valet mode was really cool. You can put in a pin number and it limits the car to a lower speed and RPM. Just something to make sure no one else is having too much fun in your car.
Overall the car looks fantastic, goes like stink, and is so unique I can almost guarantee you won’t know anyone else that has one for the next 3 years. But overall some of the car felt very “version 1.0″ car quality and made me want to see how much better the second version of the car is going to be. For now the car is too expensive, starting at $110,000, and doesn’t offer enough to make it usable as a daily driver. Not that I would turn one down, but obviously I don’t have the money to buy one either.
Thanks to everyone at the dealership for taking time to show me around and let me ride in the car. I had a blast!
Let me know if you have any questions about the car in the comments.