My 2009 predictions
by Justin Garrison • 2009/01/01 • 7, Apple, Linux, Microsoft, PDA, Thoughts, Ubuntu, Video Games • 4 Comments
I have never done this before but I thought I would take a swing and making some predictions at what I think is going to happen this year with technology.
1. Smaller, faster, better. Duh. That is obvious but I think there will be some big improvements in “alternate” input for computers. Apple is rumored to release a multi-touch imac. Windows 7 has multi-touch support and is just waiting for hardware/software to take advantage of it. In 2009 I expect to see the biggest improvements in multi-touch software. Games will probably be first, with the iPod touch and iPhone helping with lots of ideas, and then we will get some cool browser and media solutions. I for one would love to see cooliris with some multi-touch support. After multi-touch will probably come touchless input but I don’t think that will gain a lot of ground in 2009.
2. GNU Linux will gain at least 1% (double) market share (putting it up to 2%) before the end of the year spearheaded by Ubuntu. At this point I believe every major computer retailer (except Apple of course) offers GNU Linux on at least 1 model line, and when people see the boot speed and stability improvements of the next Ubuntu release more and more people are going to start “giving it a shot”.
3. 2009 will be the year of Microsoft solutions. I know Apple is gaining on Microsoft’s market share and they still will for a good part of 2009. But I don’t think market share ever really tells a full story. All I hear about now is how Apple is the coolest thing since super cooled capacitors, but I sense a bit of a change in the wind. I think Windows 7 will launch in 2009 and will greatly restore faith in Microsoft as a company. I also think that the next version of Windows Mobile will finally catch Microsoft up in the mobile platform market. The Windows Mobile OS won’t surpass what is currently out with Android or iPhone but it will make it respectable in what it can do and how it looks. I also think that the Windows Home Server market will gain popularity and the Xbox line will continue to grow. Finally, I think Zune sales will skyrocket (mainly cause Zune media player will be in Windows Mobile 6.5). Right now the Zune is in spot 3 behind Scandisk and Apple. I think as more and more people become unhappy with their iPods but they don’t want to upgrade to iPod touches or iPhones they will turn to the Zune. Last I checked Zune had 5% market share, but by the end of the year I see that number doubling to 10% of the mp3 player market. A big jump but it is truly a worthy mp3 player in my book.
1. The Wii will crash. They have enjoyed a crazy amount of sales for far too long and they haven’t come out with any good software for months. I am so glad this day will finally come because I haven’t liked the Wii from the start. They will quickly be outsold for a few months by the Xbox 360 and the Wii will drop in price (my guess is to ~$180). Either way it will be hard to recover and it will probably just die out until Nintendo unveils the Wii HD or something ridiculous. By this time the Wii will not be “the console to have” and most people will finally see the console for what it truly is.
2. The PS3 will jump in sales. I already see this at my work. Two of my co-workers who previously bought Wii’s finally want to either A. Play real video games again or B. Watch Blu-ray movies. Their obvious choice was the PS3. Although the price is a big jump, people will finally realize all the features you get out of a PS3 and will start buying them mainly for Blu-ray players and eventually for gaming systems. The PS3 will also start to gain popularity because the Xbox 360 will run out of juice (aka. storage space) and the PS3′s potential will finally start to be tapped into. Sony will begin to push out better programming tools and maybe even Valve will come to the dark side and program their own crap for the PS3.
3. Online systems will be key this year. Xbox Live is fantastic but costs money. More and more people are getting tight on money and Xbox Live will probably suffer because of that. The PSN has been mediocre at best, but at the cost of free I think more people will sign up for this than ever before. Also Nintendo will realize the error in their ways in not offering a online service and will make plans for it with the Wii HD.
4. I think the PS3 will offer 3D gaming to some extent. Most people don’t realize their Samsung HDTV can display the 3D content and the market is ripe for the picking. I think the PS3 will be the only console that can really handle the amount of power it will take and storage space to contain 3D content.
1. February 17th will be a very dark day for a lot of people. Best Buy will be crowded as hell, and people will be very upset their antenna doesn’t work anymore. The biggest impact will be in low income/minority neighborhoods. There will probably be some bill passed to make sure they are not forgotten about in the future. HDTV sales will continue to decline until after February 17th when they will get a small kick in the pants until the economy levels out.
2. Because of the DTV transition online television distribution systems will benefit. Hulu, Vudu, Boxee, Apple TV, Windows Media Center will all see a lot more users than ever before. It is going to be a big quantity over quality issue but the amount of free content online will win in the end. After online distribution systems gain some ground they will start to push better quality to the users.
3. Displays are going to rock. Not just TV’s either. Laptop displays, computer monitors, projectors are all going to improve. OLED will make a big push (“organic” isn’t just for your foods) and I think we will probably see some sort of built in projector for a laptop this year. Pocket projectors will also finally become something worth looking at.
4. The internet will have a new awesome site. There will be some new MySpace/Facbook site for 2009 and it will include all the other sites in one. It will finally truly be able to combine your online accounts (at least social accounts) in one place. I have a feeling this site will be run in some way by Google (or at least bought by Google in the end). I think the first step to this will be Google NOT buying Facebook. If they do buy them then there would be no point in making an all inclusive social site. Their new site will easily tie in with YouTube, Blogger, Google Calendar, etc. The next step would be for Google to buy Twitter.com. As more people don’t have time to blog, they will turn to Twitter to allow them to blog on the go.
Well that is it. I know it was a heck of a lot of reading and I thank you for reading it (or at least skimming it). I will hopefully follow up 1 year from today to see how these predictions were met.
Let me know your predictions in the comments or if you agree/disagree with any of mine.
First off, you HAVE to change up the style sheet for this site. Or at least change #author, #email, and #url to a different foreground/font color than background color.
But I digress… I just wanted to let you know that I really appreciated your article. I made it all the way through and I thought it was one of the most comprehensive tech predictions that I’ve read. Usually people have the tendency to specialize in one area or another, but this one ran the gamut.
I totally agree with your sentiments about Microsoft. I think that they’re really sneaking up on a lot of people. Most people don’t even seem to realize a lot of the services that they keep pumping out with Live. Computer cleaning, online storage, etc. And then also Mesh and Home Server, I feel like I hear about a new one every day. If they start perfecting these things and people start noticing this year, they could really jump ahead. And it seems like Apple is starting to die off. How many interesting features were they releasing when iTunes first came out, compared to now. It seems like once a company reaches a certain size they go from innovative to boring to buying out other people’s innovative solutions instead of actually creating something new. Hopefully Microsoft will show that a company can come back from that.
I also liked your comments about the Wii. To be honest that’s the first negative review I’ve ever heard someone give about the Wii, but I think that its deserved. They developed an awesome interface and pushed the ball, but then didn’t push anything else, so you’re left feeling unbalanced. No innovation in social gaming? No innovation in game design? Very few first-party games? What happened? Hopefully they’ll be able to bounce back from this with the increase in sales that they’re seeing and their next console won’t just be a “Hail Mary”.
Finally, I liked where you were going with the multi-touch screen stuff, but I can only hope that it won’t stop there. Computers are LONG overdue for an interface overhaul. We’ve been using a mouse since the 1970s. I always remember that Japanese Object Oriented tile interface video that you showed me a while back. Why aren’t any of these things getting polished and making it to market? It seems like every other aspect of computing has had revolutionary changes over time: speed, storage, presentation, audio, inter-connection, etc. Why have we been using the same controls throughout this whole process?
Anyway, thanks for writing! Keep it up! And Happy New Year!
A very good prediction indeed. I totally agree with the multi-touch predictions. With the iPhone and Touch, and even Microsoft’s Surface, the technology is growing at a fast pace, and I’m sure everyone will want a piece of the action. I hope you are correct with the Wii also. I have felt the same way, that it is just kinda a fad, but since it’s been for what, 2-3 years, and it’s still being sold out? It’s got to die off soon I would think.
I would have to disagree with Shadowcat on Apple dying off. Yes I am an Apple fanboy, but not an oblivious one. I don’t believe Apple can do no wrong and they have definitely made mistakes. However, I have studied the company well enough I would like to think, that they will bounce back. This seems to be a trend with Apple and the media. Apple will release something that changes shakes the technology world and then they milk that for as long as they can. It happened with the iMac when it was first released. It wowed the media for years, and then it seemed like it was getting old and everyone thought Apple lost it’s hype. Then came the iPod and the same thing happened. Now we are at the end of the iPod wow-ness and now the iPhone. This trend will continue it seems like. I wouldn’t be surprised it Apple came out with something else to wow the media and technology. My guess is maybe something with the Apple TV. This still seems like an untapped market where most DVR’s still are not that great, and to me, it looks like Apple could have a lot of potential there. The Apple TV still isn’t fully developed and I think Apple could really hit a winner if they added a TV tuner or seven to it. Who knows. In all the research I’ve done on Apple it always seems like they have the ace up their sleeve for just the right moment. However, with Steve not doing the keynote this year at Macworld and Apple pulling out of all future Macworld’s, we might be seeing a new Apple Inc. Only time will tell I guess…
Other than my extremely long Apple rebuttal I think your predictions are pretty spot on and hope to see most if not all come true. Keep up the good work and Happy New Year! Here’s to 09…
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