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2012 Technology Predicitons

0 Comments | This entry was posted on Jan 01 2012

As usual, here are my predictions for what will happen in 2012. Last year I played it pretty safe and was right on almost all of my predictions. Check it out here and see how I did for yourself.

Computers and Mobile

1. The market will finally start to have tablet fatigue and the clear winners will be Apple’s iPad, Amazon’s Kindle, and Microsoft tablets. Android will still do well but no single company (besides Amazon) will be able to market and push a tablet like the tech giants. And cheap tablets will, in the end, have more market share than expensive ones. Which is also why Apple will probably come out with a cheaper tablet ($350-$400) to compete.
2. Ultrabooks are going to be everywhere this year. They will try to compete with tablets and the MacBook Air but will only gain traction when they drop to $500 or less. A lot of users won’t even care though because they can do most of their work on a $250 tablet.
3. Google will merge Android and Chrome OS in an attempt to compete with what Microsoft comes out with in Windows 8. It will work similarly to how Motorola’s splashtop works now, but accessories will be more universal and the lapdock OS will work better.
4. Apple’s iPhone 5 will set new records for sales, Android will remain in the lead (because of the volume of devices), Windows Phone 7 will eat away at iPhone market because of Windows users who are fed up with Apple’s ecosystem, and RIM/webOS/etc. will all be forgotten by the main stream.
5. Google will also come out with a dumb phone version of Android for developing countries, and non-smartphones. These phones will typically not have touch screens but will be able to run some Android apps.

Software and Web

1. Windows 8 will have versatile tablets and will serve multiple purposes as tablets/notebooks/desktops. Businesses will buy them by the boatload in an attempt to allow users to stay mobile and save some money. The tablets won’t be as functional as notebooks but will be the cool thing for at least another year. In order to use all of Windows 8′s cloud featuers you will have to start using Microsoft’s server backend which will sway even more users towards Apple computers. Consumers won’t really care about this functionality and there will be a small market for accessories and docks because the interfaces will not be universal like they will be for Android/Chrome OS.
2. Desktop applications will take a hit in sales as more users realize they can do what they need with web apps. Google Docs and Office Live will start to gain steam with the general public, but I think another app entirely will become the winner. Probably something that integrates with Facebook. This will also help propel Google even further with Chrome OS.
3. Streaming music will hit main stream and people will finally stop buying CDs. Spotify will probably be the winner because of it’s Facebook integration. We will also see other companies start their own music streaming services (Verizon, Comcast, etc.) and they will all be terrible.
4. Streaming video will still struggle throughout the year because content providers will not lower the prices for digital downloads and streaming. Netflix will have some major competition this year and will continue to lose market as other competition gets more content, and has cheaper prices.
5. Social network exhaustion will set in for many as options will continue to expand. By the end of 2012 Facebook will still be the clear winner in social but many users will just be worn out on trying to keep up with all of their online friends.
6. Voice control is going to have a huge push because of devices that don’t have keyboards. Siri will lead the way thanks to hacks, but Microsoft and Google will both have answers in 2012. Neither will be as consistant on devices because they cannot control the entire ecosystem. Google and Microsoft will try to be more open with their voice control and will start to persuade users off of Siri, but Apple will allow 3rd party plugins and accessories which will keep a lot of the voice control usefulness on their side.

Video Games

1. Mobile gaming will die. The Vita and DS are doomed due to the fact that the consoles and games cost so much. People will keep using their phones, music players, and tablets as casual gaming consoles and won’t even bother to buy the more expensive consoles. Micro payments will be huge in 2012.
2. Nintendo will struggle to find a new market. Their Wii U will be mostly unsuccessful in the US because of its expensive accessories and the fact that there will be so much other competition in the casual gaming space with cheaper and more versatile devices.
3. Sony won’t have a clue what to do with the PS3 and how to integrate their services together in a fashion that is useful for people. This will cause more people to either move to the Xbox 360 or other casual gaming devices.
4. Microsoft will announce (Q2) and come out with a new console (Q4) which will finally have diskless games. Everything will be purchased and streamed from Xbox Live “the cloud” with an optional Blu-ray attachment to keep prices down.

Other

1. 3D TVs will still be pushed in retail but won’t have any compelling content. More TV manufacturers will begin to look for alternative content uses for 3D such as video gaming dual view and some things never seen before
2. Google TV and Apple TV will become casual video game consoles. Since Google and Apple don’t have any unique content, they will try to branch out into video games and apps. Apple will integrate their Apple TV with their iDevices, but Google will be too fragmented to do the same. Instead they will rely on accessories and controllers you buy in addition to the new Google TVs. Google will continue to allow manufacturers to embed Google TV software into their TVs and Apple will continue to keep things in house and come out with a better user experience. Apple will begin to build Apple TV functionality into their iMacs and displays and will make larger (32″-42″) displays that will function as TVs for some.

Let me know if you think I’m right, wrong, or crazy in the comments.

2011 Tech Predictions

1 Comment | This entry was posted on Jan 01 2011

After doing this two years I figured I needed to continue my tradition. If you want to see how right or wrong I was in previous years check out my 2009 predictions and 2010 predictions.

Computers


1. First of all 2011 will be the year of the tablet. That isn’t a prediction, it’s more of a fact. I think the big winner in the tablet world will eventually be Google with Android simply because they will have the cheapest and most devices. This has already been proven true with cell phones.
2. Even though the company with the cheapest and most devices will eventually win, advertising will win the tablet market in the short term. It doesn’t matter who has the best device or the best software. The company who has the most successful marketing campaign will win. This makes me think that the iPad will continue to sell well, the Blackberry Playbook will have a decent market, even though it will suck, and HP won’t have much traction unless they change their strategy. In the end, Android will still probably take the lead because they will have the most companies pushing Android tablets.
3. Because of tablets in the <$500 range I think laptops will begin to take a hit in sales. While this has already been reported with the iPad, it will actually be true in 2011. Oh and desktops don't have a chance. Even businesses will begin to go away from desktops and start offering more laptops, tablets, and thin clients.
4. Apple and Microsoft will begin to change their strategy for their computer operating systems. I think Microsoft will begin to rely heavily on "cloud computing" and try to offer some of their own services but mainly focus on always connected devices with instant on. Apple, on the other hand, still won't embrace 3rd party cloud services and will expand their own Mobile Me platform and continue to segregate their users. While this won't cause an Apple revolt in 2011, I think there may be an uprising in 2012.
5. Microsoft won't have a real answer to Windows on a tablet. While they will have lots of plans and still push out devices, they won't have something that is finger friendly until 2012. Even though what they should do is put Windows Phone 7 on tablets.

Cellphones

1. Smartphones will continue to expand their market and the Verizon iPhone will finally come out. The iPhone market share won’t go up as much as some people expect because most people that want a smartphone are already entrenched in the platform they are on now. And 2011 will have so many good phone operating systems that the iPhone won’t be “the best” anymore. iPhone market will still go up, but it won’t catch Android.
2. AT&T will be forced to stop riding the iPhone success wave and either slash their prices or finally get some decent devices. My theory is they will reach out to HP and Blackberry for exclusive devices rather than lowering prices to Sprint and T-Mobile level.
3. Network will be the big marketing push for carriers at first but that will die down near the end of the year because most of the networks will begin to share the same coverage and network technology. Also phones will become less exclusive because quad-band and penta-band phones will become the norm. Although 2011 will still see very few LTE voice devices.
4. Customers will start adding devices to their contracts because more devices will have cellular radios and the wireless data will finally became fast enough to use. I think there may even be a push for people to ditch their traditional internet provider and just tether their phone/buy a modem because it will be cheaper for them.

Video Games


1. Nintendo will finally have to announce a new console. The Wii sales will drop so much that Nintendo will updated it to a Wii HD that has Blu-ray, HD graphics, and 3D capabilities. They will also incorporate the Wii Motion Plus controller into the standard remote and probably have a standard webcam with a high focus on video chatting and video integration into games. I am hopeful that people will finally become tired of the same thing and Nintendo’s success will plummet until they are innovative again.
2. Microsoft won’t announce a new console at E3 but will probably hint at something coming in 2012. They will continue to update the Xbox 360 to add value to the system, but developers will need more processing power and more storage space to push the envelope. And they won’t get that from the 360 because of the fragmentation of the console install base.
3. Sony won’t come out with a new console but will finally create better online services that will allow developers to easily take advantage of cross game chat, universal lobby rooms, and video chat without having to program it from scratch.
4. A new company, or possibly existing company, will come out with a “console” with the main focus of bringing PC games to the TV. It will be similar to OnLive but will have a better library and subscription model that will actually be successful. They will also include support for iOS and Android if they truly want to “make it”.

Other

1. There will be a decline in major technology breakthroughs because the economy will finally level out and companies will realize that they can’t just keep pushing new products because people aren’t buying them. This won’t stop companies from coming out with new things, but big breakthroughs won’t happen as often as they did in 2009 because people don’t have the money to buy it and companies don’t have the money to develop it.
2. Streaming services will continue to try and eat away at the cable TV market but it will take big companies like Google, Microsoft, or Apple to make it truly successful. I am hopeful that Microsoft will finally make a all-you-can-eat video service, a la Zune pass, that will work on the 360 and Windows that might compete. No matter what, a pay-per-view model will not work, and content providers will be stubborn to allow this type of model.

That is all I got for this year. Let me know if you have any predictions in the comments or if you agree/disagree. Either way I hope everyones 2011 is great and I am looking forward to all the announcements to come.

How-to Modify the Default User Settings in OSX

0 Comments | This entry was posted on Sep 30 2009

After my post on modifying default user settings in Vista I thought I should follow up with how to accomplish a similar thing in OSX. For OSX there is only one way to accomplish this, and that way is the manual way.

Just like with the manual way in Vista set up two user accounts, your local admin and a template user. Change all the settings you want for the template user and then restart and log in as admin. To copy the files to the default user you will need to open the terminal and follow the commands below.

Local admin isn’t enough, you will need to actually be using the terminal as the root user. If you don’t have root enabled you can find out how to enable it here.

sudo su

The English.lproj is the default user directory for any user that uses the English language. All we are doing here is copying the English.lproj folder and its contents to English.lproj.bak. For these important files ditto is better than cp because ditto will preserve the “resource fork” using the –rsrc option. It is also a good idea to keep a copy of this default user somewhere else besides just this computer in case something happens. I would recommend zipping up the English.lproj folder and storing it on a backup drive somewhere.

cd /System/Library/User\ Template/
ditto –rsrc English.lproj/* English.lproj.bak

Now that we copied a backup we can remove all the files/settings in the old English.lporj directory. If you accidentally delete the English.lproj folder (instead of just its contents) you can create it again with mkdir.

rm -rf English.lproj/*

Here we are just copying everything from our user we set up to the user template folder. Replace “rothgar” in the below command with the username you gave your template user.

cp -R /Users/rothgar/* English.lproj/

This final step will change the owner and group of the files and folders inside the user template to what they should be. All of the default user files should be owned by root and the group wheel.

chown -Rv root:wheel English.lproj

Those are all the steps needed to modify the default user. It would also be a good idea to reboot the computer, log in as admin, and check/repair disk permissions on the drive just to make sure everything is correct before you take an image of the computer. If everything is correct you can test out your settings with a new user and if everything checks out delete your template user.

Let me know if you have any questions, comments, or problems with the process in the comments.

Enable “path view” on top of Finder window

0 Comments | This entry was posted on Dec 07 2008

I saw this at The Unofficial Apple Weblog and thought it was nice because I hate that you can’t see what folder you are in by default.
Open a terminal and type:

defaults write com.apple.finder _FXShowPosixPathInTitle -bool YES

And you have your location at the top of the window. I don’t even have a Apple anymore but this still may be useful in the future. Only works in OSX 10.5.5+

Why the Mac Mini sucks for MythTV/PVR

9 Comments | This entry was posted on Nov 17 2008

I bought the mac mini for a few reasons:
1. It is very small and very quiet
2. It looks good with my AV equipment
3. There are a lot of accessories that match the looks of the mini
4. It came with good enough specs for video playback and recording

The main problem I had was dealing with the small/slow hard drive. So I wanted to upgrade that but here are some of the things I ran into.

First of all, the Mac Mini had almost everything I wanted (and some things I didn’t care about) built in. I wouldn’t need to add any features to the device unlike other small computers I was looking at. Most other small computers came with almost everything I needed except one or two thing, built in IR for a remote or firewire. These were requirements for me. I know I could have used a USB -> IR adapter but I wanted this computer to look a little less DIY than my last MythTV. And not having firewire seemed too complicated to try and add my own through expensive adapters.

My goal for the Mac Mini was to upgrade the internal hard drive and use an external 1 TB drive. The reason for this was storage and speed. The internal hard drive in the Mac Mini is only 5400 rpm and while that works fine for web pages and word documents, when reading and writing large media files all day it just would not be fast enough for the task. One option was to install the OS on the internal hard drive and use a external hard drive just for storage over USB but the CPU overhead of USB and the read/write speeds would just not cut it (internal SATA II is over 6 times faster than USB 2.0/Firewire 400). There also is no firewire 800 port so that wouldn’t work either. I tried following a walk through that someone else already did with a mini hard drive upgrade but apparently Apple has updated their device since this was done and adding a hard drive the same way is no longer possible. If this worked for you on a post Nov 2007 Mac Mini please let me know in the comments. The problem I had was the Mac Mini would never detect any hard drive outside of the chassis. I tried with multiple cables, hard drives (2.5″ and 3.5″) but never once was able to get OSX or Ubuntu installed on the bigger hard drive.

To break it down, the reasons the Mac Mini actually sucks for building your own PVR are these.
1. Slow (low storage) hard drive
2. Expensive features that are not needed but you don’t have a option but pay for. (OSX, iLife, Apple tax, etc.)
3. Hard to upgrade processor and memory

And these are the reasons I picked the AOpen over the Mac Mini.
Mac Mini uses a older 945GM chipset with 667 Mhz vs. GM45 chipset with 1066 Mhz, it uses a more power hungry 65nm (T5600/T7200) processor vs. 45nm (T8100 or any socket p processor you want), and GMA950 GPU vs. GMA X3100. Not really big deals considering both should have the ability to play back most 1080p content. But having updated specs just make things a little easier, and the ability to upgrade helps make the PVR future proof…well almost.

For anyone interested, here are some pictures of the steps I took to make the Mac Mini NOT work with an external eSATA 1 TB hard drive.

Sata to eSATA adapter. I was sent the wrong adapter and Microbarn would not accept the fact that this was a female SATA to male eSATA cable when I needed male to male. Even after sending them this picture. P.S. don’t order this, order this.
Adapter plugged into the Mac Mini SATA riser card with a male to male sata adapter I had to buy extra thanks to Microbarn. Maybe I just don’t understand male and female connectors. :)
SATA cable run inside the case. This wasn’t as hard as I thought it would be. See the picture above for what it looked like coming out of a slightly modified Kensington lock hole.

Let me know how a Mac Mini is working out for you as a PVR or what other machine you bought as a substitute in the comments.

Create user template in OSX

0 Comments | This entry was posted on Oct 22 2008

After my last post I realized I have never explained (or documented for myself) how to create a user template in OSX. The best how-to I found was on Jim Epler’s Blog which I found via google. Here are his steps slightly modified

1. Tweak your default account including setting dock, clearing cache, recent items, etc.

2. Restart and login to the machine as admin.

3. Issue the following commands in the terminal:

:~root# cd /System/Library/User\ Template/
:~root# sudo ditto -rsrcFork English.lproj/* English.lproj.bak
:~root# sudo rm -rf /System/Library/User\ Template/English.lproj/*
:~root# sudo cp -R /Users//* /System/Library/User\ Template/English.lproj/
:~root# sudo chown -R root English.lproj
:~root# sudo chgrp -R wheel English.lproj

4. Restart, log in as admin and repair permissions before creating a new account to see if it worked.

Now all your new users that log into the machine (including mobile users) will have these same settings as your template user.

OSX 10.5 keychain and user templates

3 Comments | This entry was posted on Oct 22 2008

We decided to have our Apple computers joined to our Active Directory server so we have a little more control and our users have a little more continuity and features when using different machines. We also finally figured out how to set up a user template similar to Windows default user profile. A problem we ended up with was our user template had a blank password for the keychain access but we need our users to have their keychain password be the same as their login password. If the keychain passwords do not match, the keychain keeps popping up every time they need to use a password stored in the keychain.
To fix this you can simply delete the login.keychain file from the /System/Library/User\ Template/English.lproj/Library/keychains/ folder before a user logs in or you can just deleted the login.keychain from the /User//Library/keychains/ folder after the user has already logged in.
I just wanted to help with this problem before too many people got stuck with this like we did.
Leave me a comment if it worked for you or if you have any problems.

How to restore a Apple computer to factory defaults

5 Comments | This entry was posted on Oct 03 2008

I occasionally need to set up a Apple computer to act like it just came from the factory to give to a new person or to sell it. There are 2 ways I found to do this. The first is with the original install disk that came with your computer. But honestly who still has those around?

The second is as easy as deleting one folder and two files.

All you have to do is boot the mac into single user mode (command+s at start up) and enter the following commands at the terminal you are presented with.

mount -uw /
rm -rf /Users/ /var/db/netinfo/local.nidb /var/db/.AppleSetupDone
reboot (or shutdown -h now if you don't want the machine to turn back on)

Replace with whatever username you set up on the computer.

This isn’t exactly the same as a fresh install but it is close enough. It removes all of the users and has the person go through the steps of naming the computer and registering with Apple.

Let me know if you have any other tips for restoring a Apple computer to true factory defaults.

Funny how that works.

2 Comments | This entry was posted on Jan 22 2008

I am not really trying to mix things up too much but I do find it very interesting that the weeks prior to MacWorld everyone was saying how much they would love to see a Mac Tablet and how great it would be to finally catch up with what the PC world has, without paying $2k+ for the Modbook.

And ever since the MacBook Air was announced everyone just said how awesome it would be to have a incredibly thin and light notebook would be. No more word on the tablet or all the other things they had wished would be there.

I also found it funny with the more powerful processors in the Mac Pro’s and how that would just “get in the way” of all the other amazing things that were going to happen at MacWorld. But really most people, who don’t throw money at Apple, came away very disappointed in the whole thing. If you truly look back and see what Apple did announce, it was actually pretty sad. Updated hardware and movie rentals is all I really saw. That is something that every company does. No company would go on stage and announce a thicker and slower notebook, or a inferior desktop. Every time there is a press release it is because something is faster, thinner, lighter, or just plain better than its predecessor.

Apple is supposed to innovate beyond just making something slightly better. The fact that they don’t do that really just makes them another company.

I really look forward to the coming ~6 months when a couple companies follow suit and build thin driveless machines but they don’t sell well. The really smart companies will watch how the MacBook air does and see that it won’t sell incredibly well, especially at its current price, and they will continue to make thinner, lighter, faster notebooks at a cheaper price.

A bunch of new tools/tweaks

0 Comments | This entry was posted on Jan 12 2008

I don’t really like filling up my website with posts about every tool I find. But every once and a while my RSS feeds fills up with “pinned” items for me to remember and check out when I get time. Well, it has filled up again and I am going to throw a bunch of downloads at you so get ready.

Lets start with a few tools that I probably won’t use much but it may be good for me in the future. Test Everything is a all-in-one tester for your website. Want to test your CSS or Whois? They have it all in a pretty slick, but not very user friendly interface. Bottom line is, if it isn’t at Test Everything I would be surprised if it exists anywhere.

This next one is a tool I remember reading about in the PDAPhoneHome forums a couple of years ago when I had my xv6700 and it was just a idea. It is called WMWifiRouter and it makes your Windows Mobile phone work as a wireless router for your laptop/PSP/whatever. You have to connect via a Ad Hoc network because the phone cannot broadcast DHCP but that shouldn’t be too much of a problem. The tool comes in 3 versions. The first version will install the program on your phone and also set up the Ad Hoc network connection for you. The second will install the program but you will have to do the Ad Hoc network settings yourself. The third is just the program. You will have to drag the program over to your phone and then run it and set up the network yourself. I really can’t wait till I get my new phone so I can give this one a try.

Now on to some tools I know I will probably use. The first two allow you to work on computers remotely. What is always the first step of working on a computer remotely? Figure out what is wrong. LSGrab helps with that. It allows you to remotely get a screenshot of a computer on your network. I tried it out on a couple of computers on my work network and had mixed results. Either way, it doesn’t hurt to try. The same web site, Moernaut.com, also had a tool called Remote interactive executer. I didn’t get a chance to try out this tool but if it works the way I think it does I will be keeping this around for a while.

Speaking of remotely managing computers. If anyone out there has a good program for remotely administering computers please leave a comment. I have been having a hard time finding a good one for my work. And just to narrow things down a little bit, LanDesk and Desktop Authority require too much integration (domain admins/servers), and NetSupport and Radmin don’t have all the features I need. So if you find something in between please let me know. I need to be able to remotely administer a computer without disrupting the user.
The next tool comes from the How-To Geek. They helped me out in a big way by showing me how to disable the internal system beep in Windows. If I still ever used internet explorer I would also have loved their tip on enabling more simultaneous downloads. In order to keep things nice and tidy on your computer, lifehacker has a tool called Belvedere that can automatically manage files for you. I have a couple set up that lets my downloaded files move after 1 week of creation and then if they aren’t opened in a couple weeks after being moved they are automatically deleted. A great way to keep junk files off my computer.

Finally, there is something I am never fond of but it is still fun to mess around with and that is making your OS look like a different OS. But, if you ever wanted to make your Windows XP machine look like OSX you don’t need to look any further than FlyakiteOSX. How-To Geek tipped me off to the program and I gave it a try on my virtual machine and it doesn’t look to bad. I mean, for what it is.

That should clean out my RSS feeds for a little while. Enjoy the new tools.